$10 per day? Maybe vehicle wear and tear would average out to $2 per day, but for most people, auto depreciation is an obscure concept that seems far removed from their day-to-day cash flow needs. That price will turn a lot of people away.
Now I do agree that some people will pay more to avoid traffic and stress. But I really don't see how you could expect a large number of commuters choosing the rail for economic reasons based on the $10 price. Don't forget that people do value the independence of having their own vehicle in the city to go places after work or in case they have to make an unexpected trip during the day.
As for insurance, I doubt many people will be able to convince their insurance company to lower their rates. Maybe if the rail system planners had been smart they would have worked out some kind of exclusive insurance sponsorship deal where ridership would be tracked by the rail and communicated to the insurance company - thus proving to the ins. that people truely did ride the rails X number of days a month.
And for you to say that there would never be delays on the rail route seems a little over-optimistic to me. Based on my experience in riding subways, el.trains, and commuter rails in other cities, there can always be delays. Missing crews, broken crossing guards, conflicting freight traffic (surely the line is used for freight as well), bomb threats, police activities, inclement weather (fallen trees laying across the track after a tornado or ice-storm). You get the idea - there will be delays - - just delays of a different nature from what the auto commuter is used to. For example, no one ever calls in a bomb threat on your Escalade that necessitates you spending hours combing through the hidden compartments, but that could happen on a train. Especially considering the security attitude in this country now. Broken track switches, cross-tie fires, track maintenance..........