[Richmond off-topic postings]

Richmond appeared in a top 10 list of where Millennials are moving to. We even edged out Raliegh by a percentage point, lol. Millennials Are Moving to These 10 US Cities (msn.com)

[Foundry Park - CoStar HQ]

On 12/15/2023 at 9:55 PM, plain said:

At this point I believe that if CoStar doesn't buy that block, a developer with residential or mixed-use in mind should buy it. Yeah Dominion took it back off the market (prematurely in my opinion, like a few other decisions they've been making over the last couple years) but quite a few cities both domestic and worldwide have been building residential towers that exceeds their tallest office towers in height. The same thing could happen here, and that's a pretty good place to start.

The tallest building in downtown Salt Lake City is a mixed-use residential tower (it is still under construction but is nearly topped out).  Additionally, the only other skyscraper under construction in that city is also a residential tower. Most new towers across the country are either mixed-use, hospitality, or residential.  Richmond needs to do more to bring people back downtown. Redvelopment of the collesium and adjacent blocks will help but we need a more active and engaged downtown alliance to really help downtown Richmond take off.

[Dominion Resources: New High-rise Building Planned for Downtown]

1 hour ago, ancientcarpenter said:

I'm sorry, am I in the Richmond forum or Martinsville?! 

RVA population is growing at a rapid pace - mayor's numbers were 8.8 people per day moving to RVA when he spoke back in 2020/21. 

https://www.grpva.com/research-data/demographics/

edit: doing the hard numbers, looks like 2010 to 2020 it was 7.8 people per day moving to RVA. Moving forward, project 2020 to 2030 is 6.8 per day.

Am I missing something?

I'd also add that while 3,000 in two years is nothing to get excited about, most cities between 2020 and 2022 (including many midsize cities) experienced population loss or zero growth.  The 2023 population estimates that will come out Spring 2024 will give a clearer picuture of  how Richmond is growing.

[Dominion Resources: New High-rise Building Planned for Downtown]

14 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

Really good analysis, @Flood Zone. So then that leads to the question: why does it seem to impact Richmond MUCH more significantly than it does like the really high-growth cities like Nashville, RDU-CH, Austin, etc.? Am guessing FAMILIES are moving into those other cities as well as young professional singletons? Something is fueling demand in those other cities that just doesn't seem to be in play in Richmond. Take jobs out of the equation. I can't help shake the feeling that even if all things (like jobs) were equal, the "demand" in the city still wouldn't be what it is even in the suburban counties, much less the other high-growth markets.

Dunno... it's a head scratcher.

Nashville, Raliegh, Charlotte, and Austin are huge in area and include many traditional suburban neighborhoods within city limits that Richmond doesn't have.  Richmond is still growing, I wouldn't call almost 3,000 people in two years that were in a pandemic stagnate growth, it just isn't explosive growth. Family size definitefly impacts things. In the cities previously listed a growing family can move into a larger home and better school catachment area while still staying in the city, that is much more difficult to do in Richmond. 

[Richmond International Airport]

On 5/31/2023 at 3:44 PM, Icetera said:

Ironclad was setup last month in Concourse A, so I imagine likewise in B.

Ironclad also has a free coffee station in Concourse B, which I greatly appreciated since the main kiosk was closed when I was waiting to board my flight.

[Shockoe Bottom]

This is common right now, as concrete is more abundant than lumber right now so the parking podium comes up quickly followed by a lull before construction resumes. The project on Monument Ave near I-195 sat idle for at least a month after the parking podium was built, but construction resumed, and it looks like they are framing the third floor right (I teach at TJ and pass it every day driving to work).

[Richmond: Economy/Business/Real Estate]

33 minutes ago, 123fakestreet said:

Confirming you are correct. The only independent cities in the entire country outside of Virginia are St Louis, Baltimore, and Carson City.

Philadelphia is a city-county, which is basically an independent city, lol.

[VCU Developments]

The failed Navy Hill project looks more and more like a blessing in disguise. We will probably get a new arena out of the Green City project, but I don't have a lot of trust in CCP in building what they promised outside of the arena.

[Diamond Area / Hermitage Rd Corridor / Ownby District]

On 4/13/2023 at 12:28 PM, I miss RVA said:

Posting this just to point out how very different mindsets can be in terms of whether or not a city/metro is progressive/forward thinking and bullish about themselves. Sports Illustrated (SI.com) is reporting that Salt Lake City has entered into the conversation for possible MLB expansion. Why is that pertinent to Richmond? Of any city/metro in this country that's comparable in terms of pure size (and Richmond has the edge in this - at least for now) - it's Salt Lake City. To wit:

Salt Lake MSA estimated 2022 population - 1.192,000 

Richmond MSA estimated population (by at least one estimate) - 1.339,000

Yes - I realize as @wrldcoupe4has said many times it comes down to the old real estate mantra of "location, location, location."  RVA is too damn close to Washington-Baltimore, whereas Salt Lake City is pretty much the only game in town in their region. By a wide margin. However, RVA COULD THEORETICALLY pull from the additional 1.8 million in Hampton Roads - so our combined markets would total 3.1 million.

I'm just finding it interesting that a market that's smaller that Richmond is bullish and forward-thinking enough to actually think they have a legit shot at an MLB franchise. There's a rather impressive list of considerably larger markets ahead of them on the list that have a much better chance at landing a club. But kudos to SLC for even trying - while we're still trying to figure out how to build a bloody minor-league ballpark for a AA-level team.

No idea if this is behind a pay wall or not - I subscribe so I'm able to read it.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/04/13/salt-lake-city-reportedly-wants-mlb-expansion-team?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=campaign_6605105

While Salt Lake and Richmond have a similar metro size, Salt Lake is very unique as its CSA is 2.7 million and consists of three metro areas that are so close to together and intertwined that they share the same public transit network. Ogden and Provo, the two major cities of the two adjacent metro areas that make up the CSA (called the Wasatch Front), are both about 30-40 miles from Salt Lake City proper. That is why Salt Lake can support NBA and MLS teams and has an extensive rail network with commuter and light rail. In other words, you have probably close to 2.5 million people that live within 30 miles of downtown Salt Lake.

[Richmond off-topic postings]

Norfolk isn't building a lot of new housing so as families move away and their housing units are replaced by singles or childless couples, the population shrinks. That could explain Henrico's stagnate growth, larger families moving to Chesterfield while smaller families/single adults move into Henrico. Estimates lean heavily into the birth/death rate and new building permits. While they aren't entirely reliable, especially when a city's official population was undercounted (as I think was the case with Richmond in 2020), estimates usually mirror how a city is growing, or not growing.

[Richmond off-topic postings]

US Census 2022 Population estimates are out today for independent cities and counties.  The Census Bureau estimates that Richmond's population grew 2,777 people from April 2020 to July 2022 going from 226,618 to 229,395 residents. In comparison, during that same timeframe the CB estimates that Norfolk lost around 5,000 people and VA Beach lost around 4,000 residents. Only Chesapeake (net 3,000 people) and Suffolk (net 4,000 people) had comparable population growth among independent cities. For the counties the CB estimates that Chesterfield added around 12,000 residents, Hanover around 3,000, Goochland about 1,400 and surprisingly the CB estimates that Henrico's population shrunk by about 400 people between 2020 and 2022. Overall it looks like Richmond is still enjoying steady growth especially in comparison to most of the state. The Nova independent cities saw literally no growth.
 

co-est2022-pop-51.xlsx

[Richmond Grocery Wars]

1 hour ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

Probably easier to get a smaller format like Aldi in Manchester  and build from there. 

I think that is what Manchester will end up getting, and as a Manchester resident, I wouldn't mind an Aldi in walking distance.

[Diamond Area / Hermitage Rd Corridor / Ownby District]

1 hour ago, Brent114 said:

It would be far more urban and legit to keep the greyhound station where it is.  It can be rebuilt if necessary.  

Moving all of the things that make a city urban and functioning in favor of nondescript apartments, drive-thrus and a ball park that will sit empty 7 months out of the year isn’t wise. There are pages devoted to “will Breeze or won’t Breeze make Richmond a hub” while we actually have a transportation hub on AA Blvd.  Could classism be at play? 

I would love to see a Greyhound station incorporated into a downtown bus terminal that would make the Greyhound station more accessible via public transit.

[Dominion Resources: New High-rise Building Planned for Downtown]

I think we will see a mixed-use tower there. The only way a large office tower would go there would be if it was a headquarters or already had secured a significant tenant during the financing phase.  I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a tower that was a mix of apartments and maybe a hotel.

[RVA growth 1950 to today]

I taught at George Wythe High School last school year and I am convinced that there was a significant undercount of Latinos in this city.  Just during the last school year over 200 new EL (English Language learners) students registered well after the start of the school year. Look at how overcrowded River City Middle is.  Reports already show severe undercounts of communities of color, but as someone who worked a lot with Richmond's Latino community I wouldn't be surprised if they were undercounted by a few thousand. Most of the new arrivals are coming from Central America and many of the parents, including many of their kids, struggle to read and write even in their native language and would have needed help to fill out a census form.

[Manchester Development]

I didn't get to snap a picture yet but it looks like construction has started on the site of the planned 32 Duplexes between Bainbridge and Porter just south of Commerce. I live just two blocks to the north so I'll report back on any porto-potty sitings, lol.

[Manchester Development]

17 hours ago, Brent114 said:

I’ll snap some shots this evening. 
 

I definitely miss Jackson Ward.  Manchester is OK and it’s fun being some place that is changing quickly…but it’s not really the same as living in Richmond (I know, it’s still technically the city).   I feel like a person that left San Francisco for Oakland, or Manhattan for Brooklyn.   Brooklyn and Oakland are cool and all but they aren’t the real deal.  I’m afraid that in the time I’m living over here, downtown (from the Fan to Church Hill) will become too expensive for me to ever move back.  I probably should have sucked up the extra expense of living in the cultural center of the city.  Living adjacent to it is nice enough but I feel a lot less cooL LOL. 

I'm also in Manchester. For me the bonuses are the view of downtown and access to the river. 

[Richmond off-topic postings]

2 hours ago, ancientcarpenter said:

Fort Worth, Tulsa, and Phoenix looking like Monroe Ward 

In terms of excessive surface lots, Richmond definitely fairs better than a lot of other cities, lol.  But one surface lot is one too many in my opinion, lol

[Richmond off-topic postings]

Cool video of drone footage of various U.S. city skylines (Richmond is at the 8:48 marker). When you look at Richmond compared to other skylines you see that while we might not have the crazy height we do have a nice building density compared to a lot of other cities. U.S. CITY SKYLINES - DRONE FLYOVER COMPILATION - YouTube

[Richmond: Economy/Business/Real Estate]

Pretty interesting data from Apartment List for the first quarter of 2022 showing migration trends.  Almost half of apartment searches (47 percent) came from outside the metro area. In comparison, 41 percent of searches in Charlotte were from outside the metro, Atlanta just 28.1 percent of searches were from outside its metro, Austin's outbound search rate was 45.4 percent, while Nashville's was 49. 3 percent.  Raleigh had a slighter higher ratio than Richmond with 52 percent of searches coming from outside its metro. RVA's profile is increasing,  and is attracting a higher rate of outside interest than  Charlotte, Atlanta, and Austin.  This study isn't perfect (it measures interest, not leases signed etc.) but it reflects RVA's rising profile, at least regionally. Apartment List Renter Migration Report: 2022 Q1

[Foundry Park - CoStar HQ]

19 hours ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

Nothing has changed. Good news on this submittal!

Looking at the filing everything looked the same. That makes sense that the 21 floors was just focusing on the commercial office floors.

[Foundry Park - CoStar HQ]

7 minutes ago, blake_p said:

The Costar pedestrian plaza design went before the Urban Design Committee this morning:

http://richmondva.legistar.com/gateway.aspx?M=F&ID=9e683f2b-6911-4867-bb2e-8e412c969e90.pdf

No new renderings, but you can see some of the building layout.

In the planning documents they list the tower as 21-stories instead of the previously reported 26. I'm not sure how that will impact the previously reported building height. They could have made some floor height adjustments and will still end up at 425 feet but with fewer overall floors. I guess we will have to wait and see.

[Richmond: Economy/Business/Real Estate]

1 hour ago, ancientcarpenter said:

Five of my neighbors just paid $100-150k over asking... one from SanFran, one from Nova, one from NYC, and two from Henrico county.

Migration from other metro areas is definitely contributing to our growth as well, but it is encouraging to see that our urban center is luring people out of the suburbs. What this city really needs is a city-wide ADU(Accessory Dwelling Units) ordinance to help increase/encourage incremental density throughout the city while also adding much needed housing. (The city may have one in place, but in my own research I couldn't find any evidence of that).

[Richmond: Economy/Business/Real Estate]

17 hours ago, flaneur said:

Not sure if this got posted last week, but here's some positive data on in migration to RVA and residential rentals. We're number 13 on the list:
https://www.storagecafe.com/blog/us-renters-migrate-toward-feeder-cities-with-dallas-suburbs-biggest-renter-magnets/

What I found interesting in this report is it counts migration within the same metro area.  Most of the cities on the list were suburban ring cities drawing people from the urban center to the suburbs. It is promising to see that in Richmond, the opposite is happening, more people are moving to the city from the suburbs (with Henrico being the biggest contributor to new city residents) than are leaving the city.  It is good to see additional evidence that the decades-long trend of urban flight is reversing in RVA.

[Dominion Resources: New High-rise Building Planned for Downtown]

I too would love to see a high-rise building with a mix of residential and hospitality  and some ground-floor retail. Ideally some for-sale condo units would be included as well. While the demand for office space is down, I imagine there are Dominion, Costar and State workers that could satisfy demand for luxury residential at that location.