MountainIslandLakeResident

I'm really surprised CLT is expanding the E concourse. AA regional flights are set to decline markedly in the next twelve months and even more dramatically in the next couple of years. Is this because AA is closing the hub? No, it is due to two factors: pilots and planes. Regional airlines are having a very difficult time recruiting enough pilots because of the 1,500 hour rule enacted by Congress. Furthermore, thousands of mainline pilots are set to hit the mandatory retirement age of 65 in the next few years. The result is that there will be a massive shortage of pilots. Google "pilot shortage". Second, AA released their 2017 fleet plan in January and it shows that there will be a decline of 24 regional aircraft in 2017 including 56% of Piedmont Airlines Dash turbo prop fleet. Those turbo props arrive and depart as many as 5 times a day to places like Hilton Head and Florence. Furthermore, after AA released its fleet plan, Air Wisconsin, which flies 66(!) 50 seat jets for AA announced that all its jets will fly for United beginning Feb 2018(10 months from now). The new President at United, who used to work at AA, commented that poaching Air Wisconsin damages AA regional feed. So AA is losing 90 regional aircraft in the next 10 months! There hasn't been a 50 or 66 seat regional jet manufactured in 10 years and the airlines aren't going to buy any more. Those planes are going to wear out. Does this mean CLT is doomed? No, but it does mean that E concourse expansion and the 4th parallel runway are unnecessary. Click on the Investor Update from Jan 27 to see the fleet plan. http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=117098&p=irol-presentations

Interestingly airport passenger traffic declined in January 2015 vs. January 2014, but aircraft movements were slightly up over the same period. Both statistics are counter to recent trends in which passenger traffic was up but aircraft movements were down. http://m.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2015/03/12/fewer-passengers-traveled-through-clt-airport-in.html?r=full This site is also useful for looking at passenger traffic and aircraft movements. http://charmeck.org/city/charlotte/Airport/AboutCLT/Pages/CLT%20Traffic%20and%20Activity%20Reports%20new.aspx

I would encourage anyone interested in the future plans of CLT to watch the presentation to the City Council on Feb 9th which is linked below. The CLT presentation starts at the 36 minute mark and lasts for over an hour. They discuss the 4th parallel runway and how it requires that West Blvd be moved, a possible 5th parallel runway, and all the proposed gates. http://charmeck.org/city/charlotte/CityCouncil/meetings/Pages/default.aspx Also CLT is redoing their noise exposure maps and there are some interesting slides at the website linked below. http://www.airportsites.net/CLT-NEM/meetings.htm This slide shows the expected fleet mix in 2015 and 2020. http://www.airportsites.net/CLT-NEM/documents/pim1/10-Ops%20Levels%20and%20Fleet%20Mix.pdf This slide shows how the current runways are used. http://www.airportsites.net/CLT-NEM/documents/pim1/11-Runway%20End%20Utilization.pdf What I found interesting about the presentation to City Council are the projected growth rates for CLT. They expect a constant growth rate overall and an even higher international growth rate even though total aircraft movements declined in 2014 and are probably going to decline in 2015 due to AA's realignments. For those of you in the industry who post here, will CLT really have more international passengers in 2015? I thought AA reduced the international flights at CLT.

The presentation on Monday to the Council is to report the findings of the new long term plan. See page 5 of the agenda. Hopefully the plan will be released to the public in April. http://charmeck.org/city/charlotte/CityClerk/Documents/Agendas/2015/02.09.15.pdf Synopsis  The Airport Master Plan Update was adopted in 1997.  The Airport contracted with Landrum & Brown Aviation Consultants in December 2013 to simultaneously prepare Airfield and Terminal Capacity Enhancement Plans (ACEP/TCEP) to address forecasted demand over the next 20 years at CLT. Together these documents represent an update to the Airport’s Master Plan.  Over the past year, a working group comprised of Airport staff, the Federal Aviation Administration, the airlines, and a consultant conducted a series of five stakeholder meetings to facilitate the design, analysis, and decision-making for the capacity study.  The ACEP/TCEP will be released in April 2015 with the following recommendations: - Airfield enhancements to include a fourth parallel runway and additional taxiways to enhance safety and improve aircraft movement; and - Terminal enhancements designed to accommodate the forecasted demand of both domestic and international growth for the hub airline as well as other airlines, increasing the current gate count from 93 to 164.  A key deliverable of the study is the update of the federally-mandated Airport Layout Plan (ALP). The ALP is a set of drawings that shows the near-term, intermediate, and long-term facilities for an airport. The ALP is a key component to the Airport’s master planning and federal funding processes. Below is a link to a presentation from 2 years ago which shows proposed gate expansions, runways and other facilities. http://charlottechamber.com/clientuploads/Economic_pdfs/Presentations/CLT_Presentation_3-13.pdf

^^^^ Passenger volume is up, but the number of arrivals and departures is down. http://m.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2015/01/27/clt-airporteyes-another-year-of-record-breaking.html

^^^^ Do either of you have links or documentation supporting the assertion that the new control tower will enable departures from 18R/36L? When I was at a meeting with members from CLT in Aug including Mr. Cagle I thought I heard them say 18R/36L was designed as an arrivals only runway. Perhaps I misunderstood them, but I also can't find any information stating that 18R/36L could be used for departures once the new control tower is built. It seems like such a major change would be included in the rationale for the new control tower, but there is no mention of it.

When planes land from the north, CLT has simultaneous takeoffs and landings today. As soon as a plane landing on the diagonal touches down, planes departing from 18L and 18C can depart. Once it has touched down, the plane landing on the diagonal can also go straight to the terminal without crossing any other runways. I wouldn't be surprised if 4 parallel runways are actually a reduction of capacity compared to today when planes are landing from the north. When planes land from the south, the diagonal is not used so the 4th parallel runway would provide a small increase in capacity.

The FAA and CLT Douglas hosted a meeting open to the public at West Meck High and I spoke to members of both the FAA and CLT Douglas. CLT Douglas is currently working on an airport capacity study and will present its findings to the City Council in Feb/Mar 2015 and there is a high likelihood it will show a need for the 4th parallel runway. It will most likely take 7 years to complete construction. I discovered that one of the primary reasons for the 4th parallel runway is to free up the space south of the terminal currently used by the diagonal runway so that it can be used by aircraft to taxi to and from gates. Evidently space is tight around the terminals. Interestingly this expansion comes as aircraft movements at CLT Douglas are set to decline because of what is happening at regional airlines that comprise more than 50% of traffic at CLT Douglas. Regional airlines are phasing out 50 seat jets and replacing them with 76 seat jets which means smaller cities that connect through CLT Douglas will see less frequent air service. This point is corroborated by the fact that if you look at the CLT business journal article even though passengers are up so far this year, aircraft movements are actually down 2%. As for the runways, it will be interesting to see the proposed usage of the 4 parallel runways. The 3 current parallel runways are far enough apart that they are completely independent of one another, but the proposed 4th parallel runway is not independent of either the current center runway(18C/36C) or the runway near I-485(18R/36L). This for example means that a plane departing on the proposed runway cannot do so until planes landing on either the current center runway(18C/36C) or the runway near I-485(18R/36L) have touched down. The reason for this dependency is because if one of the arriving planes has to abort its landing at the same time a plane on a nearby runway is departing, then two planes would be flying right next to each other. In other words, the 4th parallel runway actually provides a very small increase in capacity from the existing runways. Instead of an arriving plane having to both touchdown and then clear the runway completely so that a plane taking off from the same runway can depart the arriving plane only has to touch down so that a plane on the runway right next to it can depart. The runway near I-485 can only be used for arrivals which means that most likely it along with the current center runway would be used for arrivals and the new runway along with (18L/36R) would be used for departures. This would seem to really complicate aircraft movements since a plane landing on the runway close to I-485 would have to negotiate planes taking off from the new runway as well as planes landing on the current center runway before arriving at the terminal. I agree with ChessieCat that if this 4th parallel runway is opened that the one near I-485 risks becoming a white elephant. As for the length of the proposed runway, I agree that 10,000 ft should be adequate. One issue I haven’t seen discussed is that making the new runway 12,000 ft would require relocating Hwy 160/Steele Creek Rd./West Blvd!

Hello. This is my first post here at urban planet. I began following this thread soon after the FAA instructed CLT to stop using the diagonal runway for landings in Aug 2013. The reason for the decision was that if a plane landing on the diagonal runway needed to abort its landing, then it could possibly collide with a plane taking off from the center runway. Our area went from having no overflights to planes passing overhead every 90 seconds to 2 minutes. Now keep in mind that the center runway opened in 1979 so after 35 years of operation, the FAA decided there was a problem. Approximately 6 months later in Mar 2014, the FAA remedied the issue through a software update and landings resumed on the diagonal runway. As it relates to the future of CLT, while reading this forum I found the post from earlier this year which had a link to CLT future plans. http://charlottechamber.com/clientuploads/Economic_pdfs/Presentations/CLT_Presentation_3-13.pdf The slide called “LONG-TERM FUTURE - PHASE 3 2014 – 2018” shows that the opening of the 4th parallel runway will coincide with the closing of the diagonal runway. In other words, the 4th parallel runway wouldn’t add much capacity(other than having a 12,000 ft runway for long range international flights). Looking at the drawings, the 4th parallel runway is more about closing the diagonal runway so that space can be used for future terminals. Interestingly the final slide of that presentation shows CLT looking almost identical to ATL. However, if AA is going to limit CLT international service, then it seems like the 4th parallel runway might not be necessary for the foreseeable future. It is my understanding based on a conversation with Mr. Cagle that CLT is currently redoing its master plan. It will be interesting to see if the 4th parallel runway is prioritized, but he told me that it would be at least 5-7 years before it opens because of the environmental impact studies that have to be performed. Also, CLT is currently performing their multi-year FAR noise analysis and if they are planning on constructing the 4th parallel runway in the next few years, then its noise impacts will have to be included. This information is outdated. Use of the diagonal runway was suspended from Aug 2013 - Mar 2014, but it reopened in Mar 2014. http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2014/03/17/4773380/diagonal-runway-reopens-at-charlotte.html