Thanks for the welcome - and I appreciate your thoughts, I hadn't read the whole post. But, I also think that in this environment that Orchard Hills may not succeed either unless they "steal" tenants from Woodland or Rivertown. Few fashion nationals would want three stores in this size market and many stores at Rivertown just cannibalized their Woodland sales and had little new net gains. I know they are going after a variety of new-to-West Michigan tenants but like Whole Foods, this is not going to be their primary market of choice. While we may have that 2 million extended reach population, a retailer is going to look at the 10 mile radius for a primary demo and 30 mile for a secondary and despite the affluence of the area, there just isn't a big enough % of population in HH's with incomes over $150,000 to afford the higher end products - today, five years from now, maybe. Those that can buy couture are going to continue to go to Chicago, New York or even Detroit for their fashion items for the larger selection of stores, etc.
If this is correct, and I'm not saying it is, what will Orchard Hills do? If they aim lower and compete directly with Woodland and Rivertown, then that could be disasterous for all. Landlord costs are not going down and CAM won't either for the forseable future, though they are less for lifestyle centers. I've heard that Woodland's are high and the new owner isn't lowering them which may mean they lose tenants to Orchard Hills and then we have three half filled malls. Yikes.
(Gosh, a plane just went down at the airport - I guess there are worse things that could happen than the demise of a shopping center - that gave me a little focus....)
What do you see as a winning plan for all three malls? Can they survive?
