queensguy06

December 8, 2021

42 minutes ago, atlrvr said:

Transportation has been a defining characteristic of American culture. In Boston and Charleston, stables have become garages, and will one day become drone hangers.

As one of those finance guys, the most basic rule in finance is a dollar today is worth much more than that dollar in the future. That's why buildings are built for what generates revenue today. The natural devaluation of future earnings is expected to be at a higher rate than transportation evolution.

I would add to this the inability to predict future transit needs; development is reactionary to emerging technologies.

First, we are talking about an environment built on technology still 20-30 years out at the earliest. Auto manufacturers are shifting to all electric options into the 2030s. There is still a LONG way to go on fully autonomous vehicles. What does ride sharing look like in this future? Drones most likely will become more prevalent but even that is not guaranteed and is in its infancy. What mix will personal electric mobility such as e-bikes, scooters, or some yet to be invented people mover play in this future environment? Will more than 50% of the workforce be working remote/from home? My point being is that as a developer, even if I am planning for the future, there is too much uncertainty that far out to warrant building infrastructure at high initial cost on a gamble that I've predicted the right transit mix and work environment 30 years from now.

And to atlrvr's point - it still doesn't solve the issue of my current needs today and 10 years from now to attract businesses and their workforces. I need to maximize my return from day 1 as opposed to building for a potential that may not materialize when that future earned dollar is worth less than today.

I do believe that we will see a shift in building design based around future transportation needs as new modes of transportation are fleshed out and become available to the general public, creating a need to accommodate said technologies. However, there isn't even consensus on this forum of what that looks like in 30 years other than "car bad."

December 1, 2021

7 hours ago, TheRealClayton said:

Looks like we have a bit of a preview of the final height of this building. I would think the glass panels only stick a few feet above the white steel supports.

Agreed - the rendering below gives a good view of the support structure. The glass panels and lighting look to start below the top two concrete "floors" that conceal the core and elevator shaft which will give it a more dramatic appearance once completed.

November 24, 2021

5 hours ago, RANYC said:

Wow, can we do all that for just $86 million in total project costs? Tearing down the current CTC structure and then digging up the premises to effectively install a non-train subway terminus for buses?

THIS is the question - I'm not sure how they got to $85,718,000? Denver bus terminal cost $219 million in 2016 with 22 bus bays and parking for an additional 6 buses. Current CTC hub accommodates 25 bus bays (20 inside the station, 5 around the station on surface streets). I'd assume they would need at least 20 bus bays for the new underground terminal just to maintain the current system.

November 23, 2021

As mentioned above (and in photos below), here in Denver the bus terminal is underground. The concourse feels like an airport concourse with glass windows and doors separating the concourse from where the buses arrive/depart at each "gate." And I assure you the majority of RTD's bus fleet is NOT hybrid/electric. Not only that, as passengers do have to walk from the concourse to the bus, the entire system is ventilated so people aren't sucking in bus emissions - just like every tunnel ever built in the last 40 years. The concourse is more for noise reduction and climate control.

November 21, 2021

I believe I've only seen one of these renderings of the library. I'm assuming the closure in October was to begin removing and storing the contents of the current library, which I'd imagine will take 6 months? Possible groundbreaking/demo Q2 next year? The architect's website has a spring 2021 start with completion mid-2024 which obviously didn't happen:

https://www.clarknexsen.com/project/charlotte-mecklenburg-new-main-library/

November 20, 2021

I'm not sure if there has been an official name for this project announced yet (or the office tower portion at least), but I think a safe bet would be 1111 South Tryon. The domain name was scooped up on August 7th of this year, right around the time Riverside filed a pre-submittal development document in Charlotte. The first mention of the development I can find was from the Charlotte Business Journal on August 10th. This also falls in line with the naming of the other projects in Riverside's portfolio. Additionally, it could point to this tower being spec office with no major tenant at least as of the filing in August (this could have changed since).

November 19, 2021

This is probably the project that I have been most amped about in some time, at least since DEC. There are so many reasons to like where this project currently sits, from the location to the developer. To me, it's one of those projects that can be transformative beyond it's actual buildout (i.e. extending Uptown into SouthEnd, spurring further discussion of a cap over the Belk, altering the skyline in height and aesthetic, etc.).

Now for my armchair mathematics on what my guess is for height/floors assuming the 1.2 million sq.ft. is the final build :lol: - obviously these numbers will be based on floor plate size, so I've given a range and then my prediction:

Low end: 41 stories @ 581'
High end: 52 stories @ 737'

My prediction: Third tallest building in Charlotte with 48 stories and 680'. Talk amongst yourselves.

November 15, 2021

Pure spec is not that far of stretch for this building. Riverside announced a spec office tower here in Denver back in January 2020 that's 30 stories & 700,000 sq.ft. Now that the pandemic is subsiding, they are actively pushing this project forward, even with rather grim numbers in the market currently. As has been mentioned somewhere above, they are looking to capitalize on the need for companies to attract employees back to the office with higher end amenities. Riverside's own marketing material highlights the current state of the Denver market:

The volume of tenants actively seeking space in the Denver-area market at the end of the second quarter remained down 32% from February 2020, although an additional 250,000 square feet of demand returned to the market during the quarter. The subdued demand has been coupled with the delivery of 1.4 million square feet of office space this year... An additional 833,000 square feet of office space remains under construction, which JLL predicts will lift vacancy rates further. Riverside is betting that 1900 Lawrence will benefit not only from its amenity package, but also from its location in an area of downtown Denver...that appears poised to densify further in the coming years.

The company seems to be taking the same strategy post-covid that they started pre-covid with projects completed including a 55 story, 1.5 million sq.ft. and 54 story 1.2 million sq.ft. spec office buildings in Chicago, with a third tower at the same size completing Q1 next year.

April 8, 2021

2 hours ago, turbocraig said:

“There’s been no indication that they plan not to go forward,” she said. “It’s just that the world has changed a bit since we’ve started.”

I would have agreed with that statement 6 months, 1 year ago when there was less certainty around planned vaccinations and no end game plan for the pandemic. But this statement is completely irrelevant in April of 2021. We are weeks away from the national government rolling out vaccinations for ALL adults with most states easing restrictions across the board. By end of summer it looks like we will be in a fairly pre-pandemic state of operations. And this hotel wouldn't even be completed until 2022-2023 as is - I would think the most ideal time to open a new flagship hotel. Sure, we will see some changes in work environs with more work-from-home positions than pre-pandemic. But people will still be traveling, sporting events and concerts will be in full swing, conventions will make a comeback, the list goes on. If the reason this has stalled is because it's become a money pit at time when financing and cash on hand is low, then say that.

As I typed this, one reason did come to mind for a hold and that is material costs. I don't know about steel/metals, but lumber has skyrocketed in price over the past year.

February 22, 2021

This may be a silly question, but can someone explain to me the logic behind 5 lanes of terminal roadway with only one of those lanes appearing to have curbside access for dropping off?

February 18, 2021

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/article249311860.html

Looks like because of a census delay until Sept. 30th they are looking to postpone elections for this year until next and hold back to back municipal races in 2022 & 2023.

Why this is relevant to this topic is it also affects the transit tax:

If the City Council postpones the election, Charlotte may also need to rethink its controversial sales tax referendum initially targeted for this November. Baker said the Council cannot pursue a standalone ballot referendum for “1 cent for mobility tax” — a focal point of the city’s ambitious transportation plan to expand light rail throughout Mecklenburg County, plus connectivity through greenways and bikeways.

Leaders in north Mecklenburg are skeptical that a long-promised Red Line, stretching from uptown Charlotte to the Lake Norman area, will come to fruition.

“We might actually benefit from having a more settled situation this year than it looks right now,” Driggs told the Observer Wednesday. “In my mind, we still have some work to do in order to persuade the public that we are kind of unified and everyone is on board.”

Heberlig cautioned that consecutive election cycles might hamper city government. If members are elected for just one year, they automatically find themselves in campaign mode when sworn into office.

February 16, 2021

5 hours ago, Urban Cowboy said:

Businesses should not expect workers to WFH forever. My wife finds it isolating and less productive/efficient for team work. If businesses want to save money by reducing office space, they should pay their workers more. I’m a realtor and you would not believe the WFH setups I see in homes that don’t have dedicated offices. Not fair to expect the average worker to have dedicated space, or be able to afford dedicated space in their home. Not to mention the mental health of having work in the same space that is supposed to be a sanctuary. It’s hard to escape your job’s stress when your office is your home. My 2 cents.

3 hours ago, InSouthPark said:

I think it will be a "WFH if you are able and want to". Not a "you must work from home". Our office is open to 15% capacity because some folks hate working from their dining room table, or worse for some apartment dwellers. But for people like me, in IT, with a dedicated home office that looks out into the woods and a million times better than my windowless cube...

The work from home trend was well on its way before the pandemic hit as a natural progression of the continued push by companies to squeeze as much productivity out of employees as possible. You can see this trend from the mid-century "Mad Men" style work environs to the cube farms of the 70s-90s humorously depicted in "Dilbert" comics and "Office Space" to the more organic dot-com era recreational style work places. It was just a matter of time until innovation and technology allowed for this transition, and COVID has simply sped that process up, to the detriment of some employees as mentioned by Urban Cowboy.

I can theoretically get more production out of a salaried worker if they can roll out of bed, grab a cup of coffee, and be at there work space at 8:00am where they will work until 5:00 or 6:00pm with intermittent breaks as opposed to making that employee commute one to two hours a day to a centrally located office. In addition, that salaried employee tends to feel more empowered around their schedule if I say, "Hey - start around 8:00am and just get your hours in for the day as you see fit and as demand requires. If you need to go to a doctor's appointment at 11:00am just make sure you are communicating with your team." The idea of a regular 9-5 job has been eroding for 20 years.

I think SouthPark is spot on with how this transition will continue after the pandemic has subsided - mixed scheduling of split office time/work from home with a more gradual push towards a large segment being work from home entirely over the next 5-10 years. Inevitably, there will be businesses/jobs that require office buildings - urban cores are not going away. But there is a reason that the vast majority of new high rises in major cities across the country are condo/apartment (and more specifically "luxury" units) and not office buildings. I don't foresee a huge demand for class A office space post COVID that will need filling on levels we've seen in the 90's & 2000's.

Back to Urban Cowboy's point, while I certainly can agree on the hardships and haphazard approach people have had to take with current working from home conditions, I see that more as a product of the urgency required from stay at home orders. Obviously the ideal situation would be to say we are moving your position to full time work at home job over the next 6-8 months allowing for an ideal transitional period to get your office space set up, but unfortunately that wasn't an option. Now that the band-aid has been ripped off, there really isn't much going back. And companies will justify requiring out of pocket expenses for an at home work space through added benefits and savings from working at home - i.e. commuting (more than $1,000 in gas and maintenance annually).

February 13, 2021

21 hours ago, CLT2014 said:

At a high end hotel, this is solved by offering valet parking only where the cars are located off site. People don't expect to self park necessarily at a downtown hotel that is 4 or 5 stars. Examples include the Kimpton Tryon Park where the only option is to valet park for $35 a night. The hotel is very popular and has a 4.5 / 5 on TripAdvisor.

This. It is quite common across the country. Here in Denver I know of no less than 4/5 hotels downtown that do not have onsite parking but you can valet for anywhere from $35-$55 a night. I love Kimpton hotels and that is where I stay when I'm back in Charlotte. They even offer a Maserati SUV courtesy vehicle with driver that I use to get around downtown, and this is also common with other high end hotels.

No onsite parking is the least of the concerns facing this project if they decide to mothball it for now.

February 6, 2021

Overall, I'm not displeased with the project. I do question the color scheme though - the white sections make it look unfinished and the choice of mustard yellow as an accent color makes me scratch my head. More than anything, though, is the height of the core/elevator shaft sticking out from the top of the building; again, it gives the overall appearance that this building isn't finished.

October 23, 2020

Nothing really of substance to add, but thought I'd share some of my anecdotal experiences.

I live right next to City Park in Denver currently, and it's a great area - I always think, "Charlotte needs a City Park." At 330 acres, it's bordered by residential on three sides with a ranging mix of old two story row houses from as early as 1880s, new apartments and lofts, high rise condos, and larger estate homes. On the fourth side it is bordered by the Nature and Science Museum, the Denver Zoo, and a municipal golf course. It's always active (unless it's snowing) and they even have a boat house where you can rent little swan paddle boats on the lake.

And while housing prices are pretty inflated in Denver as a whole, being close to downtown right next to the park it's rather insane. I looked up one of the 2 story row houses that was built in 1887 - needs quite a bit a work and they still want about $600K for it. The high rise condos available start just under $1 million. Here are some photos I took on my walk with my little dog just the other day (the last two photos are not mine and from the web):

September 2, 2020

11 minutes ago, TheOneRJ said:

Anyone know the heights of the towers?

I think it was mentioned that the buildings in the rendering are not final designs, however, assuming they are somewhat close to actual build-out I crunched some numbers and came up with these rough estimates:

Main office building - 450-475 ft
Residential - 385-425 ft (most likely on the lower end of that)

August 31, 2020

I wonder if this will be the final nail in the coffin for Epicentre as it currently exists. If I remember correctly, mgmt at Epicentre announced at the end of last year that they are moving away from entertainment to retail and offices, but would be waiting until after the RNC. With covid, it seems those plans moved up by several months as businesses have been closing for good (Jason's Deli, Firehouse Subs, Studio Movie Grill - which announced their closure BEFORE the pandemic - etc.). The new business model could suffice until this development is completed in 2024/2025, but once completed I can't help but think Epicentre will die rather quickly.

The question is can they reinvent the current space, which will be 16 years old by then, for a third time. Or would it be redeveloped into something else? The timing could be right for a new tower in such a prime location.

July 9, 2020

On 7/2/2020 at 9:49 AM, gman430 said:

It's like when I box myself in the corner of my kitchen mopping....this photo gives me so much anxiety.

June 23, 2020

Just gonna put this as a reminder here...

Honeywell should be significantly taller than the deck, and likewise should top out well over the height of the giant screen at BofA stadium.

May 30, 2020

I'm just gonna leave this here......

Trump demands Republican convention ‘with no masks or social distancing’ despite coronavirus pandemic

September 23, 2019

2 hours ago, tozmervo said:

An important challenge for running transit to CLT is that the airport is already so close. Ride sharing is so cheap that it will be extremely difficult to compete on a cost basis. DEN is a much further drive, so $2 train fare vs a $40 uber ride is suddenly much more attractive, despite the inherent hassle of luggage on public transit.

I'm certainly not saying that CLT shouldn't factor into prominent transit access, but I really don't think it should be the tail wagging the dog. Providing reliable access to local, daily riders is a far higher priority IMO.

It's a $9 train ride....but your points are spot on lol. DIA is out in the middle of nowhere - the A line that services the airport is 23 miles long. Couple that with the terrible traffic on I-70, which is undergoing a 4 year, $10 billion upgrade. 35 min train ride vs. an hour or longer in an expensive cab/lyft and it's a no brainer.

Other reasons include the number of residents in a 3 mile radius of downtown Denver (I think there is something like 3 or 4 times as many as Charlotte), and the number of origination/final destination travelers. Charlotte has a TON of connecting passengers. Back in 2016, the number of O&D flights from Charlotte was 6 million; Denver was 18.5 million. Something like 3/4 of all traffic through CLT doesn't leave the airport, whereas over half of all passengers in and out of Denver are origination or final destination.

One final thing to note is that light rail is NOT conducive for airport traffic. The A line in Denver uses heavy rail commuter trains that provide overhead luggage racks and places to stack luggage that can't fit on the overhead racks. Can you imagine trying to fit a train full of people with luggage mixed with daily commuters on the current blue line in Charlotte? It just isn't feasible and would deter even more riders from using the light rail.

September 12, 2019

White Point "Alternatives:"

• A subterranean bus/transit center

• Consolidation of the 3rd Street and Spectrum Center light rail stations into one station, updated to serve three cars

• Filling in the Rail Trail gap along this Project by building an elevated Rail Trail along the Blue Line and across 4th Street

• A large civic plaza as a gathering place as part of the overall master plan in concert with burying the bus/transit center

• Large scale ideas such as providing an elevated connection/park connecting two blocks by “capping” 4th Street

Yes, yes, yes, yes, and yes. Sigh, a boy can dream

September 2, 2019

It will be interesting to see what affect the new tariffs that were imposed by the Trump administration will have on construction as they go into effect this month. I received a notification from our largest supplier that due to the tariffs, most of our metals are going up anywhere from 5% - 18% starting tomorrow. The specific field I am in is somewhat insulated, however new construction will certainly feel the hit and depending on how long the tariffs last could exacerbate a slow down in new construction.

Another indicator I have been following is the slow down in all areas of commercial architecture. For the past two months this has been showing a weakening in commercial real estate demand, with inquiries for new projects at the lowest point in a decade, and overall design contracts down significantly as well. I've been saying it for several months now - a recession is coming, and I think a lot sooner than most people are expecting. Most projections have us about a year to two years out; I think by Q1 of next year we will be feeling some of the sting. The big question mark is how big of a recession is looming on the horizon.

July 26, 2019

On 7/24/2019 at 2:56 PM, KJHburg said:

To get the ball rolling on this topic here is the tallest tower ever proposed in Charlotte. The 80 story 1000+ tall Four First Union Tower.

Here is a model/rendering that was attributed to the Four First Union project - never knew if it was a final design or not, but I LOVED this building:

July 15, 2019

On 7/1/2019 at 9:35 AM, queensguy06 said:

Unfortunately, I don't see the convention hotel being built anytime soon. Between the current funding requests by the city/region, and several economic indicators throwing red flags about a looming recession in the next 9-18 months, this will sit in developmental hell for the foreseeable future. Any projects that haven't started construction by Q4 of this year (or early Q1 of next year potentially) I think will be victims of the turn in the economy and be shelved indefinitely.

On 7/7/2019 at 7:05 AM, Dale said:

If it’s any consolation, we were hearing this a year ago.

But a year ago we did not have a yield curve inversion. The yield curve had been flattening out and sloping down for more than a year, and that was one of the reasons you had some pointing to the possibility that the market was headed that direction. But for the first time, we just had three consecutive months (or 1 full quarter) of long term interest rates paying out less than short term interest rates, otherwise known as a yield curve inversion. It indicates that investors' long term view of the market is not good. And the big red flag is that the last seven recessions going back over 50 years were all preceded by a three month yield curve inversion with a following recession occurring anywhere from 9-18 months after.

Obviously I'm no soothsayer, and for every economist pointing to a recession you have another touting the strength of the markets and low unemployment currently. But I personally use this metric as a cautionary point that dictates how I'm investing over the next year.

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