Housing Boom in Downtown Nashville

[Hankster]

The housing boom in downtown Nashville is gathering momentum. It seems that new projects are almost being annouced daily. There will be a momentous change in downtown Nashville over the next four years as the number of people living in the downtown area mushrooms from about 2,500 today to nearly 9,000! I've used the "Downtown Nashville Residential Report, July 2005" published by the Nashville Downtown Partnership as a reference of my study along with recent annoucements.

Downtown Nashville Residential Report

Adding recent annoucements to data existing in this report, I've come up with the following table showing yearly increases in housing units and population in the downtown area. The boundaries of the downtown area are defined as the Cumberland River to the East, Jefferson St to the North, and I-65 to the West and South. I would estimate that this area is no more than 2 square miles in area.

Year

2002 - 1,412 Residential Units - 2,118 People

2003 - 1,489 Residential Units - 2,234 People

2004 - 1,527 Residential Units - 2,291 People

2005 - 1,656 Residential Units - 2,484 People

2006 - 2,172 Residential Units - 3,258 People

2007 - 3,867 Residential Units - 5,801 People

2008 - 4,817 Residential Units - 7,226 People

2009 - 5,967 Resdiential Units - 8,951 People

Can the market absorb this many new units and people in so short a time? The Downtown Residential report thinks so. It states that a feasibility study released in June, 2003 for the development of Rolling Mill Hill identified a deficit of 4,400 residential units in the greater Downtown area. They estimated that downdown could absorb 7,500 new residents by 2010 withour over-saturating the downtown market. Personally, I believe that the rate of absorption could be even higher today because of wildly escalacting energy costs and the cost of transportation.

In what parts of the downtown area will these 9,000 people live in 2009? The following table show this:

Central Business District - 3,102 Residential Units - 4,653 People

Rutledge Hill Area - 173 Residential Units - 259 People

Rolling Mill Hill - 1,100 Residential Units - 1,650 People

Ball / Thermal Site - 600 Residential Units - 900 People

Hope Gardens - 57 Residential Units - 86 People

North Capitol Area - 185 Residential Units - 278 People

Gulch - 750 Residential Units - 1,125 People

Totals - 5,967 Residential Units - 8,951 People

The following tables shows individual project data using in the above analysis. If I've left anything out, please let me know. I believe more announcements will be forthcoming, because momentum is building. Therefore I believe the projected totals are conservative.

Completed Before 2003

Lofts above ICHIBAN - CBD - 8 Units

112 Second Avenue Lofts - CBD - 4 Units

114 2nd Avenue - CBD - 1 Unit

James Robertson Apartments - CBD - 123 Units

123 2nd Avenue - CBD - 1 Unit

138 2nd Avenue - CBD - 1 Unit

Market Street Apartments - CBD - 74 Units

Nashville Toy Museum - CBD - 4 Units

Rhea Building Lofts - CBD - 11 Units

Quarters Apartments - CBD - 32 Units

Riverfront Studios - CBD - 1 Unit

Printers Alley Condos - CBD - 4 Units

Watauga House - CBD - 25 Units

Union Plaza Apartments - CBD - 18 Units

420 Broadway - CBD - 1 Unit

425 Broadway - CBD - 2 Units

Metro Manor - CBD - 172 Units

Capitol Towers - CBD - 205 Units

The Cumberland - CBD - 289 Units

The Bennie Dillon - CBD - 86 Units

Riverfront Apartments - North Capitol Area - 145 Units

Rutledge House - Rutledge Hill - 41 Units

Rutledge Terrace - Rutledge Hill - 18 Units

Peabody Quarters - Rutledge Hill - 24 Units

Howell Park - Rutledge Hill - 40 Units

Academy Square Condos - Rutledge Hill - 50 Units

Mercury View Lofts - Gulch - 32 Units

Total - 1,412 Units

Completed in 2003

Laurel House - Gulch - 48 Units

Row 8.9 - Hope Gardens - 29 UnitsTotal - 77 Units

Completed in 2004

The Westview - CBD - 10 Units

Ireland 28 - Hope Gardens - 28 Units

Total - 38 Units

Complete in 2005

Lofts at the Exchange - CBD - 47 Units

320 Broadway - CBD - 4 Units

Lofts at 160 - CBD - 32 Units

226 3rd Ave North - CBD - 1 Unit

Phoenix Lofts - CBD - 5 Units

Harrison Lofts - North Capitol Area - 40 Units

Total - 129 Units

Complete in 2006

Church Street Lofts - CBD - 17 Units

Shahlman Building - CBD - 144 Units

The Kress - CBD - 27 Units

The Viridian - CBD - 305 Units

Ambrose Lofts - CBD - 20 Units

209 3rd Avenue - CBD - 3 Units

Total - 516 Units

Complete in 2007

American Trust - CBD - 75 Units

Symphony Tower I - CBD - 300 Units

Rolling Mill Hill I - Rolling Mill Hill - 350 Units

ICON - Gulch - 400 Units

12th and Division - Gulch - 200 Units

Ballpark Residences I - Ballpark / Thermal - 300 Units

Total -1,695 Units

Complete in 2008

Symphony Tower II - CBD - 300 Units

Rolling Mill Hill II - Rolling Mill Hill - 350 Units

Barkpark Residences II - Ballpark / Thermal - 300 Units

Total - 950 Units

Complete in 2009

Rolling Mill Hill III - Rolling Mill Hill - 400 Units

Signature Tower - CBD - 750 Units

Total -1,150 Units

[Onyte9]

Why not count the residential houses that already exsisted in the Hope Gardens area? They fit inside your above defined boundries of downtown dont they? I often wonder about the houses in that area. It looks like there is a good bit of new construction but some houses seem like quality work and some seem more like they were just slapped together.

[Hankster]

Why not count the residential houses that already exsisted in the Hope Gardens area?  They fit inside your above defined boundries of downtown dont they?  I often wonder about the houses in that area.  It looks like there is a good bit of new construction but some houses seem like quality work and some seem more like they were just slapped together.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

They were not in the Downtown Nashville Residential Report so I didn't include them. Since thay are in the defined boundary they should have been included, but I don't know how many there are. I'm travelling up to Nashville today, so I'll try to determine the numberwhile I'm there.

[cheeriokid61]

How many of the units completed in 2007 or later are still proposed and may not be built?

[it's just dave]

Pretty amazing stuff Hank. I don't think any of these appear too unlikely at this point. It'll be fun watching all that building going on. Cheerio, lots of things could happen to cause something to not happen, but that's the name of the game in city building. But for each one that might fall by the wayside, I bet you count on another taking its place that doesn't.

[Hankster]

I drove through the Hope Gardens area today and counted 146 single family residences there beside the two multi-unit projects I listed. Of these homes I would estimate that about half are new construction. These homes probably have more than the 1.5 residents per unit that you would normally expect to find in downtown lofts or condos. I wouldn't be surprised that there are about 400 people living in those homes. Therefore, I think you can add about 400 to the numbers I listed in my earlier post.

[ATLBrain]

Do you have any figures for the units planned for the midtown area around West End... Music Row... and East End? I don't have a clue, but I wouldn't be surprised if that number is already around 9-10 thousand (not counting the Belmont/Vandy population). Just a hunch.

[Hankster]

Do you have any figures for the units planned for the midtown area around West End... Music Row... and East End?  I don't have a clue, but I wouldn't be surprised if that number is already around 9-10 thousand (not counting the Belmont/Vandy population).  Just a hunch.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's an incredibly accurate hunch! I did some digging and found some an awesome website with detailed population data. It's from the Nashville.gov website. The first link I'd like to show showe metro's population projection up thru 2010. As you can see, they show far more growth than the paltry growth the census is estimating for Nashville and Davidson county. Personally, I'd believe these figures before I'd believe the census estimates. I heard that Fulton County Georgia is challenging the census estimates for their county.

Nashville Population Projections 1970 to 2010

Also, from that website is this map of Davidson County Census tracts. I believe that the area is question is tracts 145, 163,164,165,166,168, and 169.

Davidson County Census Tracts Map

The next link shows the population for all the Census Tracts for 200, and for projections for 2004 and 2010.. Adding up the toals for the West End Music Row East End tracts I get the following population numbers.

West End, Music Row, East End Population

2000 - 8,967

2004 - 9,381

2010 - 9,792

Nashville Census Tracts Data

[ATLBrain]

^^^ Thanks Hankster. Very interesting. I'm not known for my accurate hunches, but I spent enough time around Vandy to have a pretty good feel for W.E. and Broadway. However, I have no clue about the East End. I'll have to explore that area when I'm up there next.

Regarding the population, the powers that be in Nashville apparently don't seem to care much about keeping their county stats up-to-date. I had heard about Fulton, but I thought that the mid-census information sent to the Census Bureau was all from the counties anyway. Whoever has that job at Nashville-Davidson has been sleeping on the job.

Some believe that the population of the county is already over 610K. This is based on published figures that 13,500 housing units were built in south Davidson alone between 2000 and the end of 2003. At about 2.25 residents per unit in the suburbs, that would have already put the population at 600K nearly two years ago.

I've heard from a friend up there that the population in Davidson is already 605K and growing at about 6500 per year. I've also seen projections that put the population at between 630K-650K by 2010. IMO, that's a healthy growth rate for them (especially when you see how much growth in Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson and Sumner is going on). I've seen here in ATL how growth can strain the infrastructure and deteriorate the quality of life.

Final point. When I started at Vandy in the fall of 1988, I remember a front page article in the Nashville Banner (RIP) that predicted a loss off 20K in Davidson between 1980 and 1990... and further losses of 25K. That would have put the population of Davidson at around 420K by 2000. That obviously didn't come to pass.

[Hankster]

^^^

Regarding the population, the powers that be in Nashville apparently don't seem to care much about keeping their county stats up-to-date.  I had heard about Fulton, but I thought that the mid-census information sent to the Census Bureau was all from the counties anyway.  Whoever has that job at Nashville-Davidson has been sleeping on the job. 

Some believe that the population of the county is already over 610K.  This is based on published figures that 13,500 housing units were built in south Davidson alone between 2000 and the end of 2003.  At about 2.25 residents per unit in the suburbs, that would have already put the population at 600K nearly two years ago. 

I've heard from a friend up there that the population in Davidson is already 605K and growing at about 6500 per year.  I've also seen projections that put the population at between 630K-650K by 2010.  IMO, that's a healthy growth rate for them (especially when you see how much growth in Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson and Sumner is going on).  I've seen here in ATL how growth can strain the infrastructure and deteriorate the quality of life. 

Final point.  When I started at Vandy in the fall of 1988, I remember a front page article in the Nashville Banner (RIP) that predicted a loss off 20K in Davidson between 1980 and 1990... and further losses of 25K.  That would have put the population of Davidson at around 420K by 2000.  That obviously didn't come to pass.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Very interesting. It's very difficult for me to believe the current census estimate of only 572,000 for Nashville, just a little over 2,000 more than recorded for the 2000 Census. I come closer to believing the Nashville estimate of 595,000 or even the 600,000+ numbers you are giving than only 572K. Traditionally, census numbers for Nashville have always come out higher than between year census estimates. I wonder why Nashville never challenges these low estimates like Fulton County is doing?