Charlotte/Mecklenburg Home Prices

[dubone]

http://www.charlotte.com/mld/charlotte/news/12411161.htm

this article seems to indicate that the county's fairly modest appreciation could help us avoid a bubble (which is typically where a spike in demand causes a spike in prices only to be followed by a rapid decline when the demand pulls back). It seems to indicate that our supply and demand picture for housing is fairly healthy and stable.

the article does cite the rise of home values in first ward, downtown (although it doesn't reconcile that with the sentence "But a few miles away in the center city, the average price fell more than 15 percent.")

I am a homeowner in downtown and would prefer population growth and stabilization of downtown neighborhoods over rapid increases in value. (although i'm not complaining about my ~15% appreciation, mind you).

[SmellyCat]

Charlotte got a mention on page one of today's Wall Street Journal in a story entitled "Behind Zooming Condo Prices: New Demographics or a Bubble?" I would link it, but's it a subscription site.

The excerpt is "...and the condo market is booming even in second-tier cities such as Minneapolis, Charlotte, N.C., and Omaha, Neb. Demographic changes in the middle class can explain some of this. The ideal of the two-parent family with 2.2 children living in a suburban house is being supplanted by an array of arrangements, including single professionals, divorcees, active retirees and single parents. For many of these people, an urban condo is both more luxurious and convenient than a house with a yard."

Hmmm...I don't mind being linked with Minneapolis as 2nd tier city, but Omaha? No offense to you OmahaJim if you're reading this. Anyway, good exposure for CLT nonetheless.

[A2]

Charlotte got a mention on page one of today's Wall Street Journal in a story entitled "Behind Zooming Condo Prices: New Demographics or a Bubble?"  I would link it, but's it a subscription site. 

The excerpt is "...and the condo market is booming even in second-tier cities such as Minneapolis, Charlotte, N.C., and Omaha, Neb. Demographic changes in the middle class can explain some of this. The ideal of the two-parent family with 2.2 children living in a suburban house is being supplanted by an array of arrangements, including single professionals, divorcees, active retirees and single parents. For many of these people, an urban condo is both more luxurious and convenient than a house with a yard."

Hmmm...I don't mind being linked with Minneapolis as 2nd tier city, but Omaha?  No offense to you OmahaJim if you're reading this.  Anyway, good exposure for CLT nonetheless.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Omaha !!! I think Warren Buffet is slipping somebody some cash under the table.

BTW, If Omaha is second tier with a METRO population of only 800K than we might have to revise the list a bit on who qualifies as a 1st,2nd and 3rd tier city. WOW !!!

I will have to pass that along to Omaha Jim. He is in the Tristate area today on business. He will get a kick out of that Smelly

A2

[RiverwoodCLT]

Omaha is in the Wild Kingdom with Jim.

If it is a midsize city, what is a little city?

[monsoon]

Hmmm...I don't mind being linked with Minneapolis as 2nd tier city, but Omaha?  No offense to you OmahaJim if you're reading this.  Anyway, good exposure for CLT nonetheless.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Omaha has a much higher population density than Charlotte.

Omaha Population Density - 3370.7 people/sq-mile

Charlotte Population Density - 2232.4 people/sq-mile

[MZT]

It takes something new and exciting here to make property values change. There is so much land available around 485 to build new stuff on, and the builders are sweating away at bringing new supply online.

The areas around Northlake Mall, uptown, and the south LRT corridor are good areas to invest, I think. But the rest of town will just see modest appreciation.

[Tayfromcarolina]

This is true out there in them fields and what not. It's downtown is shockingly large for the size of the city.

I don't hear much about Omaha. Business or otherwise.

[SmellyCat]

This is true out there in them fields and what not. It's downtown is shockingly large for the size of the city.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'll bet Warren Buffet owns a couple of those condos. I wonder if he's stretching his debt limit on those with IO mortgages

[A2]

suprisingly enough Berkshire Hathaway's market cap is ALMOST 130B ! 50 BILLION more than Wachovia !!! It's HQ is in Omaha. Got to love the Buffet myster.

A2

[dubone]

suprisingly enough Berkshire Hathaway's market cap is ALMOST 130B ! 50 BILLION more than Wachovia !!! It's HQ is in Omaha. Got to love the Buffet myster.

A2

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yeah, but the SEC is looking at their books. . we can't even trust the oracle anymore.

[dubone]

does anyone know anything about the supposed 15% decline in property values downtown? i just don't see how that is true. is it actually all the new small efficiency units that are lower priced bringing down average sales price, even if the older properties are actually worth more?

[monsoon]

I have not heard of that. But the big unknown in future real estate prices are the interest rates. I am pretty sure that part of the stratospheric rise in prices in CLT and around the country are due the the historically low rates for borrowing money. If they go up just a few points, many buyers will be priced out of the real estate prices we see now.

[dubone]

http://www.charlotte.com/mld/charlotte/12416276.htm

this is the graphic that ties to the article above, showing the decline.

[MZT]

Ya know something-- I just don't beleive that map. Remember that *average* price is distorted more easily than *median* price.

I think it raises more questions than it answers. Why does it show Davidson and Cornelius declining, and the northeastern county corner right next to those towns rising? Why is Matthews and Cotswold declining? How can 28203 (Dilworth and Wilmore) be declining?

How can 28212 (south Eastland Mall area) be shown as strongly *rising* in value? Ugh. Get serious!

It doesn't jive with what I see happening in these areas. I wonder if the person who made this map inverted the colors by mistake. B)

[monsoon]

That is an interesting graphic. I will say they will continue to build condos in the CBD until the market is saturated and prices will fall. The article seems to indicate that may already be the case there.

I think there will be some exceptions however. Single family homes with garages will continue to be pricey in the CBD as will be high rise condos (above 25 floors) because their supply will be limited.

[monsoon]

I thought we had a thread here to discuss this but couldn't find it.

I was in Home Depot today looking for some pressure treated wood and noticed that a single 2x8 piece of wood was up to $9! And there wasn't that much of it. A clerk told another guy, who could not find any joist hangers, they did not have many left. And furthermore they didn't plan to get any anytime soon as there were no shipments scheduled to replenish building materials for the store. It was all being diverted to the gulf area.

It would seem to me that if you have to spend that much on a piece of wood and fight for what they have, then anything in the city getting ready to start construction, including homes, stores, skyscrapers, etc, are all going to cost a lot more and there might be delays.

One positive I could see for this is a slow down in starter home communities and maybe more people will think about moving into depressed areas of CLT to do rennovations instead of supporting the creation of more sprawl.

$9 for a 2x8. man

[teshadoh]

Possibly a sign of trickle down costs due to rising oil costs? Transportation costs will have certainly resulted in overall higher prices by some point.

[peaceloveunderstanding]

how much is it normally?

[monsoon]

Seems to me that it should run between $2-$4. That is a significant increase though I don't know how long it has been this high. The shortages are certainly unusual however.

[teshadoh]

Also another thought may be distribution itself, rather that just costs - was lumber a major import into New Orleans?

[monsoon]

I think it is more of an export item. Almost all constuction wood in the southeast is produced locally from the southern yellow pine tree. The southern yellow pine is an almost perfect tree for growing timber and native to the south. There are lumber mills all over the Carolinas. I think it is more of a case this lumber is being diverted to the Gulf.

[teshadoh]

^ That would make a lot of sense - damn that Katrina...