Which of these counties will be the first to reach

[ironchapman]

These counties are at the center of some of the South's most prominent metros. Just curious, but which do you think will be the first to top 1 million.

I excluded Texas counties.

EDIT: Could one of the mods add "Other" to the choices?

[krazeeboi]

This is a really good one. Anyone have any present stats?

[Brickell]

As of the 2004 estimate Florida has 4 counties over a million with Orange not far behind. Though growing fast it'll be a while before Duval makes it.

1 Miami-Dade County 2,363,600

2 Broward County 1,754,893

3 Palm Beach County 1,243,230

4 Hillsborough County 1,101,261

5 Orange County 989,926

6 Pinellas County 928,537

7 Duval County 821,338

Virginia has one

1 Fairfax County (VA) 1,003,15

The others:

Georgia

1 Fulton County 814,438

2 Gwinnett County 700,794

3 DeKalb County 675,725

Tennessee

1 Shelby County 908,175

2 Davidson County 572,475

North Carolina

1 Mecklenburg County 771,617

2 Wake County 719,520

Louisiana

1 Orleans Parish 462,269

2 Jefferson Parish 453,590

3 East Baton Rouge Parish 412,633

Others of note:

1 Jefferson County (AL) 658,495

1 Greenville County (SC) 401,174

1 Hinds County (MS) 249,987

1 Pulaski County (AR) 365,913

Just for fun, here's how Texas ranks.

1 Harris County 3,644,285

2 Dallas County 2,294,706

3 Tarrant County 1,588,088

4 Bexar County 1,493,965

5 Travis County 869,868

6 El Paso County 713,126

So after all that, my vote goes to other: Orange County, FL.

[cheeriokid61]

I don't know why you would say that, because it's already over 1,000,000 people and it wasn't one of the choices.

I voted for Shelbye County in Tennessee. And for those of you who didn't know, it's Memphis. It's growing quickly, and is already the only county on that list over 900,000.

That's just my humble opinion, though.

[teshadoh]

My guess would be Orange, Pinellas or Shelby Counties - most likely Orange.

As a side note regarding the list - I think Gwinnett County in GA will top Fulton & Dekalb within the next couple of decades & will likely hit 1 million by at least 2030. Unless that county implodes & suffocates from it's run away growth.

[IBruton]

These counties are at the center of some of the South's most prominent metros. Just curious, but which do you think will be the first to top 1 million.

I excluded Texas counties.

EDIT: Could one of the mods add "Other" to the choices?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think Wake County (pop. 720,000) probably has the fastest rate of growth at this point. With the city of Raleigh growing at 15% and the suburbs within Wake increasing exponentially, I think 1,000,000 could be reached within as little as 3-5 years.

[A2]

I voted for Mecklenburg, but would probably need to vote again in all honesty. Mecklenburg will not be at a million until 2010/2011. Here are the census projections for 2006-2010:

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

FOR MECKLENBURG COUNTY

2006- 2010

Year Population

2006 859,857

2007 890,812

2008 922,882

2009 956,105

2010 990,525

NOTE: Except for census figure (which is April 1), population estimates are as of January 1 of each year and average 3.6% growth.

[Brickell]

proof that people here don't actually read, they just vote for whatever place is closer to them.

[cheeriokid61]

Exactly, you might think that I was being a homer by voting for Shelbye, but I live around 200 miles away from there, and that was an honest opinion.

But about what I said of Orange County earlier, I was wrong, it isn't over 1,000,000 on the chart, but seriously, at the rate it's going, I'm sure it is now. It's one of the fastest growing cities in the region.

[dgreen]

I thought Duval Co (Jacksonville) was already at 1 million?

[Viper]

I thought Duval Co (Jacksonville) was already at 1 million?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Metro is at ~ 1.3 million but Duval county is at 830,000 and will be at about 950,000 in 2010.

Shelby may strike it first with Duval and Mecklenburg right behind it.

[Lady Celeste]

My guess would be Orange, Pinellas or Shelby Counties - most likely Orange.

As a side note regarding the list - I think Gwinnett County in GA will top Fulton & Dekalb within the next couple of decades & will likely hit 1 million by at least 2030.  Unless that county implodes & suffocates from it's run away growth.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The next one will be in Florida.........

As far as Fulton, it will probably break up anyway. Milton County will probably be brought up really soon. Yet another county to add to Georgia 159

others.

Gwinnett will definitely take top honors. There is still a lot of land available for development in it's eastern and far nothern quadrants. If they ever turn GA 316 to an interstate grade road then it will only get worse.

[Viper]

Some of you actually expect Davidson county to double its population to 1 million before any of these others hit 1 million? Davidson county added only 60,000 in the past 13 years and actually lost people from 2000 to 2003.

Orleans also lost people from 1990 to 2003 and Baton Rouge is still under 500,000.

Fulton will hit it well before Dekaulb as it has a 150,000 advantage.

[cheeriokid61]

Hey, only one person expects Davidson to hit 1 million soon, and all I can say is that that was definately not me. However, I can't believe that those facts are right. Nashville didn't lose population from 2000 to 2003. That's using unofficial numbers. Nashville is growing quickly.

Here's the order I believe this will happen:

1. Shelby County, TN

2. Duval County, FL

3. Fulton County, GA

4. Mecklenburg County, NC

5. Wake County, NC

Dekalb County, GA

7. Davidson County, TN

8. Jefferson County, AL

9. Orleans Parish, LA

10. Baton Rough Parish, LA

Wake and DeKalb were very close.

What changes do anybody else see fit?

[cosmoboy]

Hey, only one person expects Davidson to hit 1 million soon, and all I can say is that that was definately not me. However, I can't believe that those facts are right. Nashville didn't lose population from 2000 to 2003. That's using unofficial numbers. Nashville is growing quickly.

Here's the order I believe this will happen:

1. Shelby County, TN

2. Duval County, FL

3. Fulton County, GA

4. Mecklenburg County, NC

5. Wake County, NC

    Dekalb County, GA

7. Davidson County, TN

8. Jefferson County, AL

9. Orleans Parish, LA

10. Baton Rough Parish, LA

Wake and DeKalb were very close.

What changes do anybody else see fit?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well I think Mecklenburg will do it first because the 2005 estimates are around 830,000. and, by 2010 the city of charlotte is expected to have over a million residents if that tells you anything

[cheeriokid61]

Are you sure? That mean a growth of over 230,000 people in 10 years. That's very fast, even for a booming city.

[Viper]

Davidson county:

2000 Census pop - 569,891

2003 Census est - 569,842

2004 Census est - 572,475

I'd like to retract and replace my Duval 2010 est down to 900,000.

After doing some figures based on the listing and the official census figures, I've devised the following lists:

Who Will hit 1 Million When?

1. Mecklenburg County, NC - 2014

2. Duval County, FL - 2015

2. Wake County, NC - 2015

4. Shelby County, TN - 2040 (Looks to be adding only 25k per decade)

5. Fulton County, GA - ? (Has lost 2k since 2000)

6. Dekalb County, GA - ? (Won't hit 700k by 2010)

7. Davidson County, TN - ? (Won't hit 600k by 2010)

8. Jefferson County, AL - ? (Has lost 4k since 2000)

9. Orleans Parish, LA - ? (Losing a lot of people)

10. Baton Rough Parish, LA - ? (Won't hit 500k by 2010)

Well I think Mecklenburg will do it first because the 2005 estimates are around 830,000. and, by 2010 the city of charlotte is expected to have over a million residents if that tells you anything

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Mecklenburg is at 789,000 in 2005 census est. and the city of Charlotte will not have over 1 million by 2010. Grab an almanac and does some research.

[peaceloveunderstanding]

ah, there is some wisdom in crowds then indeed.

[jmanhsv]

Jefferson County won't reach a million for a while. Not until I-22 and I-459 North are completed, the former around 2010 (?), the latter around 2025. Those highways will open up the whole northern section to development. Right now, the area is pretty rural, except for the areas near 65 and up 78. My 2030 estimate: 800,000.

I doubt that Davidson County will ever reach 1 million people. It might have a population boom if people began moving up 24 towards Clarksville. That area is nice, and its still sparsely populated. My 2030 estimate: 700,000.

Shelby County's growth is going to lose some steam as land runs out there, and more people move to Fayette County and Desoto County, MS. However, it should probably hit 1 million around 2030.

BTW, I voted for Mecklenburg. That county should hit 1 million by 2010, but it has to run out of land eventually.

[cosmoboy]

Davidson county:

2000 Census pop - 569,891

2003 Census est - 569,842

2004 Census est - 572,475

I'd like to retract and replace my Duval 2010 est down to 900,000.

After doing some figures based on the listing and the official census figures, I've devised the following lists:

Who Will hit 1 Million When?

1. Mecklenburg County, NC - 2014

2. Duval County, FL - 2015

2. Wake County, NC - 2015

4. Shelby County, TN - 2040 (Looks to be adding only 25k per decade)

5. Fulton County, GA - ?  (Has lost 2k since 2000)

6. Dekalb County, GA - ? (Won't hit 700k by 2010)

7. Davidson County, TN - ? (Won't hit 600k by 2010)

8. Jefferson County, AL - ? (Has lost 4k since 2000)

9. Orleans Parish, LA - ? (Losing a lot of people)

10. Baton Rough Parish, LA - ? (Won't hit 500k by 2010)

Mecklenburg is at 789,000 in 2005 census est. and the city of Charlotte will not have over 1 million by 2010.  Grab an almanac and does some research.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

hey what i said came from the charlotte chamber of commerce site

[Viper]

Are you looking at city, county or MSA figures?

[RiversideGator]

I voted as a homer - for Duval. But, I really think that Duval will hit 1 million first out of all these choices (except other). Of course Orange would be first, if it was on the list. I think Mecklenburg has a good chance of beating Duval but probably will not because it is smaller in population than Duval now and, I believe, smaller in land area also. It is growing a little faster currently however, according to estimates at least. It may be a photo finish. We will see.

[bobliocatt]

I voted other for Orange County. Other than that I'd say it will be either Duval or Mecklenburg. At 928,000, Pinellas County (St. Petersburg, FL) also has a good chance to get to the million mark before most of the county on the list.

[Brickell]

Nice job on the numbers Viper.

The question is, can those counties depend on that growth rate when they reach critical mass and run out of readily developable land inside county borders. I know Charlotte and Jacksonville has a lot of infill, but in my experience, most growth is still coming from suburbs in the US.

[bobliocatt]

^I can't speak for Charlotte, but it appears the the majority of new suburban projects in Duval are (3 to 5 story) multi-family developments (condos, townhomes & apartments). Most of the suburban single family home type of developments are being built in suburban Clay and St. Johns Counties. Historically, single family lot lines have been built denser in Duval, as well. Because of these issues, I assume Mecklenburg will probably be built out, years before Duval reaches that point.