Dale
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Posts posted by Dale
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I keep close track of the U.K. Their numbers so mirror our own. And their ONS is quicker to the mark with hard data.
Joel Smalley, on Twitter, has been parsing excess deaths for the U.K. in 2020
47,011 from Covid.
54,208 from denied healthcare and unexplained reasons.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if our percentages lined up accordingly.
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4 minutes ago, WCUP said:
Thanks for clarifying. Do you blame maskers for the delay in treatment of your friend? J/k - just following your line of questioning...focusing on blame is unproductive. I don’t think who you blame matters...tempting, but distracting.
Why does the empathy need to be segregated? We’ve had only bad decisions to choose between. I suppose you would argue that our measures to limit the impact of the virus were counter productive. How can you be sure that without lockdowns, distancing, masking, that the spikes wouldn’t have been greater and more severe? I’ve seen you suggest that they didn’t matter, and find this hard to believe. What data suggests otherwise?
I express empathy for all of us impacted by the both the virus itself and the measures we’ve employed to mitigate its impact. We’ve learned quite a bit along the way, and had to deal with various supply shortages which explains why messaging on masks shifted.
The traffic fatality rise is baffling. I wonder what the experts will determine to be the key contributing factor for that...less congestion = higher speeds? Stress?
I could post literally dozens of studies that point to the futility of lockdowns (this is a submicroscopic particle) but I’d rather focus on the human rights aspect. Think about it. Along about March ...
You are not permitted to open your own business. You can’t send your kids to school. You cannot attend church. You can’t eat out. You can’t go to a movie. You can’t leave the country. You can’t sit on a park bench. Forget sports and concerts. You have to push back that cancer screening. You can’t comfort your dying. You can’t bury your dead.
Life entails risks. And inevitably we die. We all die. Really, the only way to avoid risks is to commit suicide. And that’s basically what we did in 2020.
Oh, the theory on traffic fatalities I’ve heard is, fewer cars on the road = riskier driving. But they are up.
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And over the rest of the year, lockdowns have likely accelerated deaths of despair. And clearing hospitals, for Covid, have resulted in vast numbers of vital treatments deferred or foregone. I’ve already referenced a woman I knew who was receiving treatments for cancer. Her family related that her treatments kept getting pushed back. Homicides also surged. Even traffic fatalities increased! Lots of dying across the board this year.
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2 hours ago, WCUP said:
@Dale Is there no relation between preventative measures (masks, distancing) and viral spread?
Can you share more about the number of deaths being “normal winter burden”? Seems much higher from what I can tell. What sources do you have indicating otherwise?
https://www.r-bloggers.com/2021/02/excess-deaths-february-update/
Thanks for the opportunity to (re)clarify. There have been SIGNIFICANT ‘excess deaths’ this year. The first graph, on your reference, point to back-to-back mild winters, when respiratory viruses are most lethal. Notice how the curve is reducing in March, as you would expect ... then the anomalous and precipitous ‘Covid peak’ manifests.
I am slightly fixated on the fact the real dying accelerates just days after the ominous WHO declaration of March 11. You see spikes like this, all over the world, at the same time, but not in every jurisdiction. In fact, not in most jurisdictions.
It is my strong suspicion that the spike represents what we were doing to people, in certain jurisdictions, more so than any virus running through the population. I’m envisioning an environment of stark terror, over-treatment and policies which ensured that the most vulnerable were exposed to any number of infections and also dying from neglect, isolation and despair.
Add to that a disturbing spike in people dying at home ...
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Just now, Windsurfer said:
At this point he seems to be trolling.
I’m simply commenting on one of the saddest aspects of this moral panic, the tendency to view others as disease vectors, first and foremost.
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2 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:
Again, I don't care what you have to say on this matter.
And since you seem to want to blame your uncle’s death on other people, I’m going to continue to keep that issue in view.
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7 hours ago, DEnd said:
No we wouldn't. In normal times we'd be at the end of a slow down of Flu case increase, with a look out for a mid season increase (which would indicate a likely longer flu season) with an expectation of the infection rate leveling off for the next few to 5 weeks, with a then likely sharp drop off. If COVID followed the path of the 2019-2020 flu season our hospital systems would be straining, many of them would be full and above capacity with equipment shortages and with wide spread severe staffing issues.
We are essentially at the end of what looks like a normal winter burden of deaths. The anomaly was the panic spike of March and April.
1 hour ago, urbanlover568 said:I don't care what you have to say on this matter. I'll trust my local doctor. I'm not selfish and want others to not suffer what my uncle went through.
Did anti-maskers murder your uncle ?
1 hour ago, tarhoosier said:One of my doctors is an immunology specialist and researcher at Columbia Presbyterian in NYC. He also is associated with Johnson and Johnson immuno-oncology research. His bona fides are solid. I had a telehealth consultation end of January and he said that for the two approved vaccinations (at that time) that after two to three weeks following the booster I should feel confident going places where unvaccinated individuals are found. Feel free to go to church, restaurants, theaters, etc. As usual avoid obviously sick individuals, keep a distance when within enclosed spaces if possible, wash hands, follow local and state recommendation and so on. These cautions are more for conventional health reasons such as seasonal flu and other communicable diseases, just general health considerations and not specific to Covid-19.
In reply to my question about if I had to delay my booster appointment for some personal reason he said that it was better to wait more than 3 (or 4) weeks for the very best results. In the trial the researchers wanted to give their vaccine the very best chance of success, therefore a booster shot, but also to balance the risk of patient compliance.To tell a patient to return in six to ten weeks is to risk losing the patient to followup. The 3 (or 4) week gap was the MINIMUM effective period to ensure success. A week or two longer gap is better. Patient compliance is a critical uncontrollable issue in any medical research.
My Moderna booster is this weekend.
Or you could just go to church, restaurants, theatre, etc., now.
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Lockdowns are why we can’t have nice things ...
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Deaths and cases dropping all over the world. Lockdowns and no lockdowns. Masks and no masks. Vaccines and no vaccines. In any other time we’d consider this winter burden of death winding down.
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8 minutes ago, elrodvt said:
@Dale, This was the link that sent me looking at the site I'm asking about.
Oh yes, makes a huge difference when you adjust for age. Americans are getting older. And back-to-back mild flu seasons left a sizable cohort of frail elderly.
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0 snow is not exactly what I moved from FL for.
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2 minutes ago, kermit said:
and our next topic will be the "moon landing"....
Yeah, but come on. It looked like that flag was blowing in the wind.
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53 minutes ago, elrodvt said:
Actually, I would say long time ago in other controversial threads.
Hey, I was hammered pretty hard myself over some of my negative comments about the direction of the city and lack of amenities etc. and am sympathetic towards others receiving that treatment. But, you pushed me over the edge before this topic with some of your more ridiculous positions and/or snide remarks such that it makes it hard to take the time to listen to you while wading through the aforementioned snide remarks.
Question, I thought that web site you referenced a couple days ago was interesting. Do you know if they tend to foster a more right wing attitude or what their goal is? My initial reaction was right wing but later I noticed some even handed or liberal biased articles and posts.
Which site ? www.rationalground.com ?
50 minutes ago, kermit said:No, it was actually the Holocaust denial embodied in that post...
(along with ignoring Japan's attacks in the Pacific)
I’m actually a holocaust denial denier. Basically, Holocaust denial doesn’t exist. My non-warmongering views do tend to land me in hot water.
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And for Pete’s sake, I’m not genuflecting to Trump in all this. Even if it ran against his instincts, to shut down the economy, fear of ‘blood on hands’ caused one head-of-state after another to crumble, especially in the face of terrifying computer models and fake videos of Chinese dying in the streets.
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4 minutes ago, elrodvt said:
@WCUP, the distain shown towards Dale did not occur in a vacuum or single topic. It comes from a long history of posts people have found offensive.
@Dale, I thought it obvious that Fauci, and to a greater extent Brix, were making the decision that some of Trump's (and perhaps the WHO's) statements were ridiculous but not bad enough to contradict a notoriously petty president and getting fired over. Fighting and winning the war by avoiding unimportant battles is a skill anyone working with a huge bureaucracy has developed.
I think the long-standing disdain started when I scoffed at the notion of Germany invading and subjugating the US.
“The risk [of Covid] is minuscule; wash your hands and skip the mask.” — Fauci Feb. 17 —
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6 minutes ago, WCUP said:
I think you're too entrenched in a position to have a good faith discussion of the facts. And no worries if we never get there - but in a way your clarification that 'Dems started it' illustrates my point. Maybe you can clarify your premise - what do you think we should be doing differently? I'm all for a moment of silence - good idea. That, and social distancing, wearing a mask and getting vaccinated. Really glad the J&J one was approved today as I think it will help push us forward.
We can agree that empathy is a key lacking quality in the country. I'd even take a simpler step advocating for more 'kindness'. The disdain you have for those that represent opposing viewpoints is telling in many of your posts- and is equally true for many that find your viewpoints detached from reality. And this hatred is unproductive and self-defeating. The comment about 'not privileged to have succumbed to Rock Star Virus' shows a flippant lack of empathy.
To make progress, the country needs a huge injection of empathy and, as vital, a commitment to truth and accountability. When there are two separate interpretations of what constitutes a fact, it's very difficult to find any consensus. Unfortunately, we're late to acknowledge the real harm that social media and the sensationalism of the media has done to the quality of civic dialogue and in turn, problem solving capabilities. We all have far more in common with our neighbors than we realize; and until we find a way to reduce the movement away from each other, our ability to solve problems will only further diminish. Irresponsible fear mongering and click bait headlines have desensitized our gauges and driven many to even more polarized misinformation. I'm not sure why acknowledging frontline hospital workers and grocery workers needs to be independent exercises. This has been a challenging issue for all.
I think we're in a better spot due to Fauci's efforts and we'd be otherwise, but not sure a sidebar debate is worthwhile there. I'd love to learn more about your cursory review if you have facts to share. I read a report earlier that suggested that COVID deaths were overreported, and it was quickly pulled down and replaced since it lacked rigor and made false claims. I'll find it if you're interested.
To be fair, I’ve seen this sort of piling-on, on right-leaning sites, and find it distasteful there too. It’s always the same. Any sort of incursion fosters a reaction-loop, a sort of “You must be some kind of flat-earther! And don’t return snark for snark or we’ll say you’re snarky!”
Fun fact: Covid is rampant because people have been distressingly negligent about wearing masks. At the same time, the flu has all but disappeared because people have been amazingly compliant with wearing masks.
Nightly news in March: “As the US achieves a GRIM MILESTONE, more Americans lost Covid than in 9/11, we take you to New York City ... now we go to New York City ... finally, in New York City ...”.
I honestly don’t get people. After weeks of “You could get this and DIE. So stay home and save lives” I was sensing we were being marinated in availability bias and began to grope for other perspectives. Oddly, I found them on the infamous cesspool known as Twitter. Here, I found (or was reminded of) actual science. So, long live social media as far as I’m concerned.
Thing about Fauci: regardless your views on the virus, at some point he’s agreed with you.
Also, is it too early to start one of those morbid daily death tickers, this time for vaccine deaths ?
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1 hour ago, WCUP said:
We saw his approach. Trump told us it would be gone by Easter and to look into injecting disinfectant. He failed. Failed to ramp up testing. Failed to supply PPE. Failed to unite America on the severity of the threat and the importance of measures that would reduce transmission and save lives. Discredited the CDC. Withdrew from WHO. He does get a smidge of credit for fast tracking vaccine research though. Either way, bigger mistake was not taking it seriously from the jump - cost many lives and hurt the economy in doing so. Without the insurrection attempt, he could have used the pandemic as a scapegoat for a host of obstacles and still addressed it head on and I suspect could have easily won the election; but instead buried his head in the sand and then shifted to denial and blame tactics when it became apparent that the virus wasn’t ‘going away’. In a scenario that demanded a leader who could prioritize humility and truth, we had Trump. Many of his supporters told us this whole virus was a liberal media hoax designed to discredit his performance.
It’s a travesty that the virus was politicized so early on. A commitment to transparency and truth would have led to far fewer deaths. Unfortunately in a time where we absolutely needed trusted news and media outlets to share non-political guidance; we find ourselves in a heavily sensationalized and editorialized infotainment environment, where consumers are simply segregating into biased feedback loops that satisfy their preconceived bias’ instead of seeking truth, and drive us into polarized camps disillusioned to blame others for all perceived grievances.
Your posts claiming inflated death counts assume that we don’t have a massive excess death trend on record. In a time where accidents should be reduced due to reduced activity, the impact on mortality actually outpaced those avoided accidents. We may have actually undercounted. It’s difficult to measure for a lot of reasons, but either way, your posts signal someone less interested in truth but simply seeking evidence to support your opinion.
We’ve lost over 500k Americans and we’re going to likely see 60k more people die in the next few months - roughly another Vietnam - and you’re busy searching for lightning strike anecdotes. Get a grip. It’s callous and misinformed. Spits on the graves of those initial frontline workers and many lost loved ones. I take it you haven’t had a relative afflicted with Covid. Put on a mask and stay socially distanced. Get your vaccine ASAP so we can wrap this thing up.
My inaugural post on this thread, dating back to April, I lamented Trump’s most grievous mistake: giving voice to the likes of Fauci and Birx.
That said, it was Democrats who politicized the virus. It is in the nature, of the disaffected party, to use any sort of calamity against the party in power. Every Covid death was attributed to Trump. Every Covid death, after Jan 20, to viral trajectory. And for all of Trump’s sophomoric observations, the level of rigor, on the left, was at the level of the cure can’t be worse than the disease because Trump said the cure can’t be worse than the disease and if Trump is seen, without a mask, we wear two.
Knee-jerk reaction when I say Covid counts are inflated. I readily acknowledge excess deaths in 2020. A cursory examination, of death certificates, renders the argument for undercounting Covid deaths highly dubious. And after having Covid for breakfast, lunch and dinner, months on end, it’s time to show a little empathy for the multitudes crushed under the weight of our wildly disproportionate reaction to a respiratory virus.
Spare me your faux indignation. I’m calling for a moment of silence for the over three-million Americans who were not privileged to have succumbed to Rock Star Virus.
Oh, and my frontline heroes were grocery store workers. In the early weeks they toiled, with special PPE, without fanfare, for modest pay ... and they never lectured the rest of us to stay home.
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3 hours ago, DEnd said:
Deaths involving COVID are just that deaths in which COVID was involved. It is the standard. We don't use primary cause of death, because that misses quite a few. For example someone has Congestive Heart Failure and gets COVID. Their Ejection Fraction goes from 45% to less than 20%. In the hospital their heart stops beating. Primary cause of death is listed as Heart Failure. While Heart Failure is the cause of Death, COVID was 100% responsible for killing them. (not that that is how we actually report cause of death we actually report the chain of morbid events that lead directly to death) per the CDC "COVID-19 should not be reported on the death certificate if it did not cause or contribute to the death." https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/cause-of-death-data-quality.pdf
I have yet to see a death in which COVID wasn't majorly contributory. Granted I only see COVID deaths, not every COVID death in the county, and certainly not every death in the county either. My experience is that we are not overcounting the deaths. Preliminary death statistics bear that out as well in 2020 more than 334,000 people in the US died than the previous year. Yes a great many COVID victims were likely to die that year anyway, something like about 85,000 from simple math (in reality that number isn't correct as we have had a very mild flu season, almost non existent, decreases in traffic deaths, likely increases in heart disease deaths, etc...).In 2017 a Spanish study, two morgues, showed 47% of decedents with viruses in their system, even though viruses were only diagnosed in 15% prior. Deaths ranged over various causes. This isn’t that difficult. We never looked for a virus the way we do now. We look for it everywhere and in everybody. One analyst has calculated that, if we tested and coded, for the common cold, the way we test and code for Covid ... we’d be looking at 450,000 common cold deaths a year. The larger problem: Mark 2020 as the year the world decided we could no longer live with viruses.
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5 hours ago, ruraljuror said:
Biden said: "there’s nothing we can do to change the trajectory of the pandemic in the next several months." Your paraphrase left out the part in bold, which seems pretty crucial to the meaning of the sentence to me, so I thought it might be helpful to get that on the record here for anyone else who may be interested.
Now picture Trump having said THE BOLD in the early going.
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15 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:
You clearly are not in a right mental state of mind to have this debate.
Okay Doc, you tell me how to frame the question.
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49 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:
Really? I guess we should let it happen and those who die are collateral damage, right?
I see people in store without masks, they all know what they are doing is selfish and wrong, but like teenagers they try and push their limits with their tantrums.
Uh, that’s what Biden recently said. After hanging every Covid death, around Trump’s neck, in the run-up to the election.
Oh, was your loved one murdered by people not wearing masks ? Did you answer that question ?
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1 minute ago, kermit said:
Thank you
You’re welcome.
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1 minute ago, kermit said:
You know me well enough to know I am too old to use gifs.
I am just looking for a proportion -- what do you think the over count rate is?
FYI: the researchgate paper cited above was not peer reviewed. Researchgate is a web site where researchers can post working projects without review of any kind. The only place that technical report appears on the web is at this "Red Pill" site: https://muchadoaboutcorona.ca/
Peer review is an old boy’s club. “Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts.” — Richard Feynman —
If I were to guess - and that’s all it is - at least 50%. That’s just squaring the difference between estimates I’ve seen.
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2 minutes ago, kermit said:
but apparently you are unwilling to answer it...
To the contrary, I fairly answered it. We know it’s inflated but cannot know the number. Do you want me to just throw something out ? And if you do, give me fair warning. How low can I go without getting one of those tearful laughing videos or a tin foil hate GIF ?
The Coronavirus thread
in Charlotte Coffee House
Posted
And I hate it when people diminish, no, chortle at the suffering of the multitudes, crushed by the effects of a monomaniacal focus, on one health concern, to the exclusion of all else.