Armacing

Sunday at 05:25 PM

On 5/3/2024 at 7:04 AM, Luvemtall said:

just bought a 1300 sq ft house for 485,000 but now you add in 11,450 a year in property taxes, 3500 a season for oil to heat the house, 1400 a year for auto taxes , 50-75 cent more on average for gasoline, food cost about 25% more and then you can get the picture. Where as here in the ‘Boro my wife and I just recently bought a 1900 sq ft home for 405,000 and our property tax is 1,800 a year on twice the size lot. And our average utility bill is 1250 per year.

You forgot about the fact that Connecticut has a state income tax topping out around 7% (3% minimum) and a sales tax of 6.35%, whereas TN's sales tax is around 10% but there is no state income tax.

Sunday at 05:07 PM

On 5/2/2024 at 5:15 PM, nashville born said:

This picture right here; come on Gulch Central. Such a lynchpin project IMO.

I'm more intrigued by what is going on in the far background... Looks like they are proposing to bulldoze lower broad and 2nd avenue and replace the historical buildings with 40 and 50 story towers I'm good with that!

April 12

On 4/7/2024 at 8:32 AM, smeagolsfree said:

Armicing, if you will drag you rear end to the meets like you used to do from the outer dwarf planet of Sedna years ago you would at least get into the conversation. I did you a favor by getting you unbanned and reinstated onto the board so at least show some respect please.

Also, Kevin, please play nice.

I would but the cost of coming into the inner solar system has gone up due to inflation!

Have you figured out what was wrong with the settings on the forum? I remember you were trying to get my old Kheldane account un-banned but you had to ask Neo about something, I think.

Whatever happened to RuralKing anyway? That guy was fun to talk to, although admittedly, the "fun" aspect may have been one-sided on my part. Personal observation: I think the level of intellectual discourse on urban planet has advanced dramatically since those days. Personally, I have a lot of respect for the posters on this forum because they are a smart group of people who are not afraid to discuss complex subjects, and I would like to especially recognize ruraljuror, samsonh, and Bos2Nash in particular... I always enjoy hearing their opinions...I wish they had been around back during the early 2000's to add their commentary to the dialogue happening at that time. I give credit where credit is due: even UTgrad09's comment was a well-placed jab at my shadow-hold comment... No offence taken on my part.

Now, back to our regular fare of benign commentary... Here, I'll get us started:

New tallest tower! Can't wait for this baby to start rising out of the ground... Tony does it again! This will make up for the Signature tower debacle, and I hope it encourages him to reach even higher... right up to the 750 foot FAA limit. Minimal parking associated with this tower! Will there be street-level retail? How will this tower activate the northwest corner of Church and Platform Way? I wish this tower had a spire!

April 12

On 4/6/2024 at 8:41 PM, UTgrad09 said:

Then when beotchslapped with the reality that a massive construction loan has been issued, you still contend that the construction process has been "slow walked."

Are we supposed to believe that Tony excavated the foundation of a 60-story tower without any financing in place? I tend to give the guy a lot more credit than that.

You observation that I don't know is obvious. It's called speculation, and in case you haven't noticed, everybody on this forum engages in speculation on a daily basis.

My "grasping at straws" comment that annoyed you was directed towards the couple of posts asserting that the foundation holes were re-filled with gravel in an effort to stabilize the ground before the foundation was poured. This is obviously not the case and everyone else was just letting that narrative slide because nobody wanted to speculate that there could be a real delay with the project. In a way, we all got beotchslapped by the news that Tony only now secured financing because the fact that this tower previously had *no financing* was not part of the forum narrative. And by the way... nothing about the news of financing being secured invalidates any of the speculation that I made. It's entirely possible for everything I guessed at to be 100% accurate and Tony's team still managed to secure financing in spite of the many challenges I outlined - and I'm glad they did!

In conclusion, if your only contribution is to say that I don't know anything, then I say "guilty as charged". Will that stop me from speculating? No. Am I troubled by the news that you don't respect my opinion? No. If this forum was based on the idea that you never post anything unless you know it for sure and everyone respects your opinion, this would be a barren, empty wasteland of a forum.

April 6

20 hours ago, UTgrad09 said:

Alternate theory:

You don't know what you're talking about.

It's one thing to be skeptical. It's another to talk with authority like you actually know what is going on.

If you want to challenge any of the points I made in previous posts, then why don 't you do it Mr. Expert?

April 5

16 hours ago, jjbradleyBrooklyn said:

Folks have a tendency to let pessimism rule their thought process. It's easy to go down that road in today's day and age.

But so glad this one is gonna truly get built!

Pessimism aside, I still find your "explanation" for why they filled the holes with gravel severely lacking. That text you dredged up about using gravel to stabilize the foundation is completely irrelevant to the building conditions in Nashville where practically every tall tower is built directly on top of bedrock. We may never know the real reason why they re-filled the holes, but if they did so knowing that they were going to start construction soon, it must have been a safety precaution or to create a staging platform for materials used on the YMCA portion of the project. As far as I recall, we have not seen the foundation holes re-filled with gravel on any other recent projects. I'm just saying there is a difference between unfounded pessimism and pessimism based on legitimate observations of unfavorable indicators.

If any of you guys on the ground are down there asking the construction crews when the tower will start, please ask them about the gravel filled holes so we can all learn the truth behind this anomaly.

April 5

23 hours ago, UTgrad09 said:

Still on shadow hold?

I would say we haven't seen any concrete poured yet, but I don't want to jinx it because nobody wants this tower to rise more than me. It's just that I was burned by the signature tower debacle and there's no denying that this tower could have been much further along by now if they had not been slow-walking the construction process. I hope it rises as fast as possible, but the fear is real!

March 18

On 3/15/2024 at 8:55 PM, BnaBreaker said:

This is an answer I found on Quora by a supposed construction engineer to the question: "Why dig out and then fill in before building a large structure?"

"Preparation is the key to having a long lasting structure. Digging down well below grade and filling with compacted gravel provides a firm, level base that will not shift and allows water to dissipate from under the footings. It is done to provide extra stability. Foundation strength is vital for a building."

As someone said on this thread not too long ago, I think most of the reason this tower feels like it is taking forever to get going is because we are getting such regular updates on it, which is so awesome, but not typical on most projects. With this project it's like we're looking at ourselves in the mirror once every week, while with most projects it's like looking at ourselves in the mirror once every five years.

And yes, you guessed right, I can't figure out how to get the highlighting that was copied with the quote off of here.

You guys keep posting that but those descriptions of dig & fill with gravel relate to a structure built on soil, not solid bedrock. You are grasping at straws at this point... All we have to do is use our short term memory to review the process for the 10 other towers built here in Nashville recently and none of them dug & re-filled because that is unnecessary when you are building on solid bedrock.

The tower portion is obviously on hold for very valid economic reasons. This is called a shadow hold: On hold without announcing it's on hold. Amazon tower 2 is vacant and filled with moth balls. Amazon tower 3 is missing-in-action. Asurion is still on the skids. Amazon is still laying people off. Oracle is on hold. No corporate relocations in the pipeline because employees can't afford to move and get a new mortgage with higher interest rates. Commercial real estate in melt-down. Work from home/ hybrid attendance still going strong. Alcove needs to fill. Prime needs to fill. The new twin towers on Commerce Street need to fill.

Given all of that uncertainty, I wouldn't blame Giarrantana if he decided to wait a year or two in order to figure out just how much residential demand there is on that street corner.

Now, that being said, I still think he should quickly re-design and start construction ASAP. Here are the re-design parameters:

1) Bump height up to 750 foot FAA ceiling

2) Double the # of units and cut the square footage of each unit in half

3) Double the price per square foot

4) Sell them all as Condos with no limitations on STR

My thinking on bullet #4 is that if commercial is dead and residential is soft, why not capitalize on tourism which seems to still be holding strong, then later on when people decide to live there instead of rent it out, the neighborhood will convert gradually and organically.

March 16

On 3/14/2024 at 11:50 AM, samsonh said:

Cheers Armacing. You win. I am not going into conspiracy theory land with you. Good luck!

No theory here, samsonh, just cold hard facts.

March 14

On 3/12/2024 at 11:15 AM, samsonh said:

This flies in the face of real world data and lived experiences. Our standard of living has most certainly risen. We can now afford many more goods and much higher quality goods. The rate I get on my money market is 5%, what are you getting? Everyone I am friends with is saving a lot, albeit I am in a successful friend group. I will leave you with two charts below that show real earnings are at all time highs if you exclude the Covid quarter where lower wage workers were laid off. Energy costs have steadily decreased as a percentage of income.

I agree with your thoughts on housing and medical care though. We need to deregulate each of those industries. We are seeing NIMBY rearing it's head locally right now.

I said housing and medical expenses went up faster than CPI, not fuel. This is widely known, but here a couple links if you don't already know this:

Medical Cost Inflation:

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/how-does-medical-inflation-compare-to-inflation-in-the-rest-of-the-economy/#Cumulative%20percent%20change%20in%20Consumer%20Price%20Index%20for%20All%20Urban%20Consumers%20(CPI-U)%20for%20medical%20care%20and%20for%20all%20goods%20and%20services,%20January%202000%20-June%202023

Housing Cost Inflation:

https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/579523f003596e94b46ce214/0b6aeb8b-d39e-4ec0-a736-861f11fdc83a/Slide1.JPG?format=2500w

https://www.bankingstrategist.com/housing-prices-hpi-vs-cpi

Also, your income chart is adjusted for CPI, but I'm saying CPI is both rigged to show lower inflation and diluted with products that are not inflating as fast as the categories I mentioned.

And here's the real give-away that you've been chugging the kool-aid way too hard: Your 2nd chart tracks inflation-adjusted income for *full time employees*. News flash: There are a large number of Americans living on fixed incomes, retirement savings, and part-time job incomes that have not kept up with inflation.

See if you can answer this question: If the Fed wasn't planning to loot the savings of hard-working Americans by devaluing their cash holdings via unlimited money printing, then why did they make owning gold illegal in 1933 and force everyone to turn in their gold in exchange for federal reserve notes? What were they afraid of? That Americans would dump the rapidly devaluing federal reserve note and go back to a reliable store of wealth like gold? That one event is all the proof we need to know that the financial system in America is not designed to promote and protect wealth accumulation by lower income people who often save cash, but rather to perpetuate the wealth of rich people who own a lot of non-cash assets that rise in value with inflation, and also benefit from the expansion of available credit thanks to their access to financing since they are deemed "credit worthy".

March 12

2 hours ago, Luvemtall said:

.33 cents for Premium! , but minimum wage was 1.15 in 1964. If you were lucky you could make 100.00 per week. Put things in perspective, it’s about the same ratios as today’s market. It’s just a numbers game , we could all make 100.00 per hour, but then gas would be 33.00 per gallon.

The ratios are not the same. The standard of living has definitely gone down. A family used to live comfortably on one income, now they struggle with two incomes. The Fed has been consistently inflating the money supply over the past 60 years to prop up wall street asset values and create the mother-of-all credit bubbles and that has been financed by the savings of everyday Americans. The Fed's target inflation rate is above the interest rate they set for bank deposits, so what does that tell you? They don't want you to save... but who can save, really? The cost of essentials like housing and medical care (both of which suffer from artificial supply constraints imposed by the government) has risen much faster than the widely referenced "Consumer Price Index".

January 26

On 1/22/2024 at 7:06 AM, NissanvilleTitans said:

I'm really confused, has this one officially started or what is happening here? Seems like they've been clearing this spot for centuries.

To me it's obvious they are intentionally "slow-walking" the construction of the main tower... The "why" is trickier to deduce...

Could they be waiting on lower interest rates? Could they be waiting for more collapse in the commercial office construction business to strengthen their hand in negotiations with desperate contractors? Do they have a reason to think the cost of steel will be coming down? Are they trying to reassess Amazon's expansion plans in a post-covid/work-from-home reality... specifically, when will Amazon Tower 2 start build-out and what are the prospects for Amazon Tower 3? Have they seen some worrying trends with rentals at Alcove and Prime that make them doubt the viability of bringing a 3rd residential tower online at that intersection... knowing that the twin towers of Nashville Yards also need to be filled? Are they re-doing the math to see what happens if it's 100% condos instead of rental (remember, the endeavor towner in gulch south made this change recently and that was a market-driven decision)?

There's no doubt there is plenty of uncertainty in the economy at large, but the new realities of work-from-home are, in my opinion, the biggest factor that will re-shape cities and residential investment over the near/medium term. The North Gulch area is not that touristy, so the residential development there was designed to cater to workers who wanted to live close. But do they NEED to live close? Why rent when you can own? Why pay downtown prices when you can live in Bucksnort or Bugtussle and build equity by purchasing a home (with a yard).

Would someone who works on West End or in Cool Springs feel motivated to live downtown? Would someone who works downtown but only comes to the office 1 day per week feel motivated to live downtown? I'm just struggling to identify who the target market for these units will be if Asurion is still on the skids (not growing), Amazon has stalled out (in Nashville), and the corporate relocation pipeline has dried up (as it appears to have done). With interest rates this high and housing costs remaining high, companies are having a hard time getting employees to relocate, so everything feels frozen in place at the moment.

I just hope Tony has the foresight to see past this period of uncertainty and build this tower for the future when (presumably) growth will return to Nashville.

January 17

On 1/15/2024 at 10:35 AM, MLBrumby said:

Daughter asked me to post here to see if anyone can give us locations of old brick industrial smoke-stacks in Nashville both out-of-commission and still functioning. The only two I could think of off the top were the one at Vandy (demolished now I believe) and the one at Rolling Mil Hill.

Oh, it's for a photography project she's doing for college credit.

As far as brick smoke stacks working, check out the Carlex Glass plant on the west side of town... Easily visible from Briley Parkway.

January 12

21 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

It is what lurks in the middle of this Bermuda Triangle or Sargasso Sea. Someone just needs to make them an offer they can't refuse so everyone will benefit.

Remember when "grit" was a selling point for new urbanism? We just need more neon lighting to enhance the dystopian ambiance of 8th South & Lafayette. Rather than a dark stygian void filled with eldritch mutants lurking in shadows, let's embrace the macabre spectacle and illuminate the whole scene in vibrant magenta and blue lighting. Step #1 is to cut down the "Sticks" art installation. Step 2: Neon everywhere. Step 3: ??? Step 4: Profit!!!

December 6, 2023

19 hours ago, Luvemtall said:

So are we possibly looking at two or even three different hotels ? We know part of the Tishman Speyer project is slated for a luxury hotel, just what branding? So does the Ritz move over to that project or does it stay in its current location and get a new developer? Or does it move to one of the Rutledge Hill projects and a newly named developer build a St.Regis/ or Le Meridien on the current Ritz site? Sounds interesting , and promising!!

Maybe they are finally going to develop that lot on the JW Marriott campus (that is currently a private park for events) into a real tower?

December 4, 2023

On 12/2/2023 at 7:43 AM, samsonh said:

There will another referendum this year. It will pass.

I hope it does pass. I would love to see Davidson County self-finance the entire system and leave the rest of the state out of their plans... That way we can avoid a huge inter-regional political battle within the state government and just let everyone pay for their own rail/bus projects at the local level.

The only thing the state of TN needs to do is allow for the construction of toll roads. Orlando is the perfect model for how this could work.

Also, I agree with the other poster who said TN needs to finish the North Loop of 840... That's a no-brainer.

December 1, 2023

8 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

I do not think there will be any changes to zoning laws to affect rents as that will be deemed unconstitutional by the state as rent control so your arguments on this front are mute.

I meant changes to zoning to allow for building more density, not rent control. Rent control is definitely not going to happen, nor should it because it would only restrict the supply of housing further.

The only answer to high prices is to increase the supply, because the demand for housing is not going to go down.

The thing about all that new rental capacity coming online now is it is priced on the high end of the market. Nobody is building low-budget rental properties today. They are building luxury units in massive complexes with lots of amenities. Those new properties will definitely be focused on ROI and maintaining the value of their investment, which I see as a strong disincentive to lowering the rental rates. I think their tolerance for vacancy is higher than you think.

December 1, 2023

16 minutes ago, Luvemtall said:

Paul, I like your thinking. Unfortunately I really do believe Nashville area will be on the short end of the stick. This is funds going to the state, they can’t even get over the airport authority issue. Their not going to play nice with metro , I can feel it.

Davidson county can have rail any time they want... just put it up for a vote and let the Metro tax payers decide. What's that you say? They already did that and the tax payers voted "No"? Well, then I don't feel sorry for them at all, and they definitely don't deserve to receive anybody else's money for rail if they are unwilling to pay for it themselves!

November 30, 2023

5 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

How will that work when you have vacancy rates in the double digits

I think the high interest rates are working to put a floor under rental prices because there are certain people who could have afforded a home a couple years ago who are now firmly locked into the rental market. The continued high price of houses even in the face of higher interest rates represents yet another obstacle to home ownership... thus, rents remain higher.

Also, there were a lot of residential properties purchased by investors during the last run-up in prices. They really have no choice but to remain firm on their rental prices, otherwise they will have to write-down the value of those assets. That is also putting a floor under home prices, and by extension, rental prices (by locking border-line buyers out of the ownership market). As an example, if Mom & Pop with two rental units get desperate, they may lower the rent on one to fill the unit. But then a few months later they see ABC Corporate ownership renter hasn't changed any of their prices, so Mom & Pop don't come down on the second unit when it comes up for renewal because they see the market is mostly unchanged. Meanwhile, ABC Corporate is not motivated to change pricing by Mom & Pop's move of desperation because their market share is immaterial.

At this point, I think the only thing that would meaningfully lower home (and rental) prices would be drastic changes in zoning laws and building codes that would allow for more density. Maybe also the construction of tiny homes and non-traditional construction styles.

November 27, 2023

22 hours ago, markhollin said:

Looking NE from intersection of Church Street Viaduct and Upper 10th Ave. North (Platform Way):

So what does everyone think? Will we see a 2nd crane raised and concrete poured for the tower before the end of 2023?

October 26, 2023

20 hours ago, MontanaGuy said:

Why are they filling in holes with gravel on the tower foundation part of this project? Should we be worried that only the YMCA addition is currently under construction and the tower is on hold pending an improved economic/interest rate situation?

August 30, 2023

On 8/29/2023 at 10:23 AM, nashville born said:

Have they released a rendering of the south or west sides of the building yet? I'm curious to know if there will be some small windows on those sides, which should be there, in my opinion. I think the chances of other buildings being built there in the near/medium term are minimal.

Hopefully there is not some fire code that precludes the inclusion of windows on those sides since they are building right up to the property line.

On the other hand, if there are no windows at all, this building will be notable for being a windowless mystery building when viewed from the south & west... which is also kind of cool. It would be cool if they covered the west-facing wall in a 30-story tall LED screen (but some NIMBY's would probably oppose that).

August 24, 2023

6 hours ago, markhollin said:

Up to 39th level above grade on west side.

Thanks for the photo update! Someone should change the tile of this thread to reflect the actual finished floor count. Right now the thread says 38-floors, but as you noted above, they are already beyond that and several more to go.

August 12, 2023

On 8/11/2023 at 11:26 AM, Baronakim said:

Looking good. I wonder how the yucca is fairing. IMO the silly thing has gotten almost as much attention as the 150 year old banyan tree in in the Maui fires . I am much relieved (and somewhat amazed) that the tree appears to have survived the fires though EVERYTHING around it have bee thoroughly destroyed. I do hope that will be some effort to make sure it gets some propmt care and emergency watering to assure it's survival. It is a landmark tree. The Nashville yucca...ehhh. Good luck to it.

Blasphemer! The Tempo Yucca has more integrity in one little leaf than the entire metro council. Tempo Yucca for Mayor!!!

August 4, 2023

On 8/3/2023 at 10:53 AM, BnaBreaker said:

Seems like a win-win for everyone involved.

The only losers are the residents of city lights, and I think we can all agree they deserve to lose everything. Now I just hope in addition to this and all the other proposals surrounding city lights coming to fruition, that someone will buy all the land between city lights and Hermitage Ave and build a monolithic rectangle that blocks their view of the river completely!

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