CLT2014

April 29

Oracle has been shifting their paper headquarters around for a while now to get incentives. For multi-national companies... there can be an over emphasis on the "paper HQ" that they can move around to get expansions funded from states willing to throw money at them.

For Oracle's "move" to Austin for example... the original San Francisco Bay Area HQ was not abandoned and remains significantly larger in size as the defacto HQ. They employ about 10,000 more people still in the Bay Area than they ever did in Austin and it will remain a larger location than Nashville too.

The Austin "HQ on paper" was all about incentives. The rich executives didn't move there. The C-Suite was not like "wow I want to give up my life in the SF Bay Area to move to Austin." All the important people are still based in Redwood City. Larry Ellison, CEO Safra Catz, CIO Jae Evans, et... I don't know if any C-Suite or EVPs at Oracle are even based in Austin.

I suspect the same will happen with Nashville. The execs will stay in CA, but they'll use the paper HQ to get some incentives for the Nashville campus and win some new business from the major health care companies in the Nashville area.

April 19

On 4/17/2024 at 11:00 PM, Crucial_Infra said:

So did VinFast end up offering guidance today in its earnings call?

This was the only mention of NC in the earnings call after a question from an analyst:
"North Carolina is still ongoing. We're still on track to start the operation by the end of next year, start hiring in a lot of workers and putting in operations by the end of next year. But probably the full operation will take a couple of months."

April 17

On 4/15/2024 at 4:54 PM, nicholas said:

^With EV credits and dealer/factory incentives that is one of the least expensive vehicles in America, and despite that basically no one is buying them. I doubt Vinfast could even give away many of those for free based on how bad the reviews have been. I only give them a couple of years before withrdrawing from the US market.

Here we go.....
Vinfast stock down 12% today bringing the market cap to $6 billion (still too high).

Q1 results:
Delivered 9,700 vehicles worldwide, a 28% decline from 13,613 deliveries in Q4 '23.
Again.... 54% of deliveries were to affiliate companies of Vingroup rather than real consumers.
Revenue declined 31% from Q4 '23 to $303 million
The net loss improved 12% over Q4 ' 23 to -$618 million
Cash available declined 28% over Q4 '23 to $123 million

All leading to.... "Construction paused at VinFast’s NC site as carmaker seeks a smaller footprint"
- No vertical construction has started after grading
- On Dec 8, Vinfast submitted revised plans shrinking the factory from 995k square feet to 782k
- On Dec 13, Chatham County responded with requested revisions
- On Dec 28, Chatham County reached out again for a comprehensive plan
- As of today.... still no response from Vinfast. No revised permits have been issued. Nothing is happening at the site.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/business/article287732910.html#storylink=cpy

Meanwhile... despite no vertical construction and delivering 9,700 vehicles in Q1... Vinfast continues to issue "guidance" that they'll occupy the site in 2025 (but backtracked on making vehicles by then) and that they'll deliver another 90,000 vehicles to hit 100,000 by year end.... selling cars with no demand.

April 17

There are so many other risks a retail tenant takes on besides just signing the lease... they have to invest in the build out of the blank space with leasehold improvements that could be $500,000+. They need to hire employees. They need to market and attract business. Even if LH dramatically reduced the lease, I think it would be hard for a tenant to survive in these spaces at Legacy (other than the Tryon facing restaurant space) currently and they'd lose their upfront investment. These lease decisions are not taken lightly (especially by a small business or franchise)... certainly not as light as the amount of effort LH put into designing the retail space.

I know we all want spaces filled.... but if I owned a small business... I definitely wouldn't be the first tenant to go into those Church Street spaces without LH covering the cost of my leasehold improvements or something.

April 16

17 minutes ago, carolinaboy said:

I'm still surprised Virginia Beach had a Wegmans before Charlotte. A city of a population around 500k (metro 1.7 million or so). The only things in Virginia Beach are people, roads, sprawl, sand and waves.

Geographically closer to their core markets, distribution center, and grocery stores have smaller catchment areas in general so you don't need to be a huge city to be viable. Wegmans origins are in mid size and smaller metros anyhow.

April 15

People are going to lose their minds.

Also..... the level of effort in that WBTV article.... repost Instagram... hit publish?

April 8

Axios wrote their short article off a much more detailed article in the Catholic News Herald: https://catholicnewsherald.com/88-news/fp/10337-growing-diocese-to-build-new-cathedral-as-mother-church

1.) They don't mention selling St. Patrick's in Dilworth. Instead they said it will become a parish church rather than cathedral. The article does say they may consider selling land in general though to help pay for a cathedral. For example, the Diocese sold 71 acres of vacant land in South Charlotte to CMS to build the new Ballantyne Ridge High School. They may have other land holdings like that across the 46 county diocese to sell.

2.) The current Diocesan Pastoral Center looks like a strong contender for the Cathedral: " Diocesan leaders are now focused on identifying a site, architect, scope, and preliminary construction estimates to create a more detailed plan. Several locations within the City of Charlotte are being considered, including repurposing the current Diocesan Pastoral Center location on South Church Street near uptown, diocesan leaders said." The article also says they are looking for a vibrant location that is prominent in the community and accessible by car and public transport.... so the Pastoral Center seems like a natural fit. Interchange of multiple interstates + Blue Line in a growing area of town seems like no brainer.

April 5

I'm surprised Lidl (2.82% share with 10 stores) has leapfrogged Aldi (2.13% share with 33 stores) despite having a lot less stores. In general they price fairly similarly, but Lidl customers must be buying more items per cart to make up the store gap.

For Publix to be closing in on Food Lion and Harris Teeter with only 26 stores (compared to 103 Food Lions and 60 Harris Teeters) is impressive.

Food Lion is probably the most vital supermarket for many working class neighborhoods in the city. They provide the only alternative to Walmart or Aldi for many citizens of West and East Charlotte that are avoided by Publix and Harris Teeter and all the boutique / specialty groceries that proliferate South Charlotte and the lake region (Fresh Market, Whole Foods, Trader Joes, et.).

April 5

Most of these lease deals (including Vanguard) show we are just doing musical chairs with firms already in the Charlotte market doing a flight to quality. The pre-Covid days of lots of white collar firms relocating people to a new city (Honeywell, Sealed Air, Truist, Centene, et.) to create net-new demand for space still seems to be slowing / largely gone. Not a great time to own an old office as tenants have options to upgrade now with space sitting on the market.

April 5

The charging infrastructure for homes is one of the biggest barriers to full adoption by 2035 IMO and why 87% of EV owners are white, 75% are men, and ~60% make more than $100,000 per year. A lot of EV drivers live in relatively new houses or they can afford the up front cost of a $5,000+ panel upgrade with dedicated space on their single family property to charge.

We still have significant barriers for middle and lower income households to be afford the upgrades to their home ($5,000 is not easy for the average American), for people that rent, and for people that live in multi-family or don't have dedicated charging spots. Not everybody drives to a white collar office job that would have dedicated EV parking in a garage either. Many will get left behind as the system evolves to gradually cater to the most affluent. Are EVs a bad thing for those that can afford it to adopt? No. But there should be some empathy towards lower income households that need affordable used vehicles and can't easily upgrade their home + need some time to be able to save to make the switch.

- 48% of Americans report having private off street parking with electrical access
- 34% have private off street parking with no electrical (think condos, apartments, townhomes, et.)
- 9% park on public streets

Some EV owners that don't have access to private off street parking come up with their own DIY methods to charge the cars, but this often works against mobility for walkers, bicyclists, the disabled, elderly, et... All of this is tough challenges around infrastructure that is working ok in one off situations, but at scale could become a mess. Infrastructure is one of the slowest / hardest things for this country to do quickly. Its why all the powerlines are still strung overhead on cheap wood poles. Why we can't build rail transit in a timely and cost efficient manner. Why sidewalks are still missing in tons of neighborhoods, et...

Imagine an entire block where every car was an EV doing this to pedestrians:

April 4

33 minutes ago, kermit said:

Nashville residents are likely to vote on a new transit plan/tax in November.

everybody is moving forward except us…

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/local/davidson/2024/04/04/vanderbilt-poll-transit-vote-mayor-freddie-oconnell-see-majority-support/73196249007/

Looks like Nashville is doing a much less ambitious and much less expensive transit plan than Charlotte was going for: Just ~$1 billion over 30 years in Nashville to build sidewalks, improve signals, improve roads with street lights, and improve bus frequency. Will it transform Nashville to being dramatically less car dependent? Probably not. Will it be able to get approved at a relatively low price tag and improve walkability in neighborhoods... probably. Everybody likes sidewalks. Rail transit will not be a key component of the 2024 referendum in Nashville.

April 3

1 hour ago, turbocraig said:

Saw my first Vinfast on Monroe Rd and Wendover just now. I didn’t even know they were on sale yet. Are they building them here yet? I didn’t think they were. It’s bigger than I had expected. This is the best pic I could get before the light turned.

Vinfast started doing their first deliveries in the USA in Q1 2023. Leith Auto Group up in Raleigh became the first franchise location for Vinfast and first location on the East Coast in January. Vinfast was recently offering a $249 / mo lease special with $0 down to clear out the 2023 inventory so I'm sure some people from Charlotte went up to Raleigh to buy one. It was one of the cheapest new cars you could buy in the country. The plant won't start building cars until 2025 so any Vinfast right now is fully imported from Vietnam.

April 3

3 hours ago, kermit said:

The last time around Iredell made it clear they were not going to pay a dime for Red Line tracks, CATS had decided that they would pay for the two+ miles to Mt Mourne, but not all the way to downtown Mooresville. I can’t remember if Iredell still funds a CATS express bus, but, if so, that would be their only contribution to CATS. Iredell will -never- institute a county wide tax, and I doubt the good folks in Statesville would let Morrisville tax themselves for transit (even if they wanted to).

Ironically, NCDOT would probably pay for some of the Iredell county construction costs since their funding formula calculation is transit basically gets nothing, unless it crosses a county line. The state contribution would be for the whole line, not just the Iredell portion. Had the Charlotte-Winston inter-city corridor gotten funded the state might have picked up most of the Iredell track cost separately from the Red Line project (but that intercity route got nothing in this funding round).

As a Mecklenburg resident, I would be a little ticked to watch my transit money get spent in Iredell.

Yeah, honestly disappointed Meck residents would be funding a station in Iredell, giving them a convenient option to commute to Uptown, while doing their day to day shopping in Iredell with no sales tax. Meanwhile Meck residents in Steele Creek, Ballantyne, South Charlotte, East Charlotte, Northwest Charlotte, et... are screwed still in Silver Line + Red Line plan but being asked to pay more in sales tax.

April 3

Would Iredell have to help fund a station in Mooresville or do they already contribute enough to CATS to fund one station? My understanding is they don't pay an extra sales tax in Iredell like Meck residents to go towards transit.

April 1

On 3/28/2024 at 8:52 AM, kermit said:

It was reported that none of the other crossing guards in Fort Mill showed up for work today. I can’t imagine why anyone would do that job after the local police declare it to be open season on your profession.

Some more info came out from the Solicitors Office on their decision... Apparently there was video footage captured from a school bus and witnesses did not report the driver speeding. The crossing guard was standing in the median and holding his stop sign facing east when he stepped backwards into the north bound lane without looking and his stop sign perpendicular to the driver still facing east. The school zone speed limit there is 30 mph and the impact was almost instant as he stepped back in front of the car.

The town is lobbying to have the school zone speed limits further reduced to make it more likely a situation like this would have the crossing guard walk away with a lower impact.

March 30

Looks like a new fortress with minimal windows to peer inside. I too won't grace the inside. Too expensive. But cool for those that have the disposable income to drop on clothes like that. That side of the mall is window shopping for me haha.

March 26

CLT needs to pressure AA to agree to a much more $$$ master lease agreement and figure out how to fund the rebuild of Concourse B and C ASAP. It will be painful. It will be expensive. AA will not like it and will kick and scream (just like their concerns with the Chicago O'Hare replacement terminal)... they will probably threaten to move flights to other hubs saying CLT no longer makes financial sense... but it needs to happen.

AA is just kicking the can down the road right now by packing more and more people into those aging concourses.... B is doing an average of 8.4 departures per day from those 16 gates... that's 135 daily flights on AA at Concourse B... . If AA wants to run that kind of volume through the concourse, it needs to be bigger.

I don't know what the private discussions are between CLT management and AA. It is a symbiotic relationship, but I'd imagine CLT often feels like AA has the upper hand in negotiations (threatening to cut flying by 40% and routing over other hubs, et.) as they'd clearly be the tenant in a replacement to B and C and the most impacted by operational inefficiencies during construction. If AA went away completely as a hub here and we were the size of RDU... you could just shut down B, C, and E completely and operate out of the nicer A concourses and Concourse D and more than meet demand for a city our size that is not a hub with ~45 to 50 gates.

March 17

24 minutes ago, Richhamleigh, DC said:

Air France now flies RDU -CDG. RDU has 8 international carriers lined up 2024. Iceland, Lufthansa, Air France, Copa, Aeromexico, Air Canada, Bahamasair, with AA operating the daily to London. I think only Austin comes close to RDU among mid-sized metro non-hub airports.

Tampa is probably in a similar boat. Hub for no major airlines, but service from Aeromexico, Air Canada, British, Cayman, Copa, Discover, Edelweiss, Porter, Virgin Atlantic, and West Jet. San Diego is also with Air Canada, British, Japan Airlines, Lufthansa, and West Jet which is pretty good for being relatively isolated from Europe and having one single 9,400 foot runway that can impact the types of planes capable to land.

Orlando and Las Vegas aren't really connecting hubs, but obviously anomalies given tourism demand.

March 17

Re: Icelandair specifically... I think there are international FIS gate logistic problems at the time Icelandair would need a gate in CLT. They run a very strict connecting schedule through Keflavik and their flights bound for North America leave Iceland around 4:30 - 5PM and arrive in North America around 6:30 - 7:30 and then turn around and fly back to maximize connections in Keflavik again.

Their RDU flight arrives at 7:30PM for example... during a time frame there is only one other international arrival at RDU from London. To arrive the equivalent time at CLT is during an absolutely chaotic time given our number of international gates...

Concourse D during that time frame is handling in bound flights from: Cancun, Mexico City, Georgetown, Saint Martin, Puerto Plata, Montego Bay, London, Curacao, Saint Lucia, Punta Cana, Barbados, and Turks and Caicos and all gates in Concourse D are under use. That's more passengers to get through FIS in about 1.5 hours than RDU gets all day usually for perspective (even in the future with their new destinations). Concourse C is going to get some remodeling in the future to expand the international gates, which should provide some relief.

March 16

1 hour ago, KJHburg said:

here is a side by side comparison of Wake and Mecklenburg counties from US Census. Wake grew faster since 2020 and when did Mecklenburg grow at a faster rate? I must be missing something.

U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Wake County, North Carolina

The year over year change for Wake and Meck from the 2022 to 2023 estimate were roughly the same for each county.

+1.64% YoY for Wake and +1.69% for Meck.

Wake grew faster from 2020 - 2023 though because they didn't slow down as much during COVID. The thing to watch is if that starts to change as we enter the middle portion of the decade in a post Covid world (lots was going on 2020 - 2022) and the two go back to having similar growth rates. This most recent estimate shows Meck starting to grow similar to Wake again after a slowdown during COVID.

March 15

12 minutes ago, Richhamleigh, DC said:

The Census Bureau compensated MYR by making it a CSA. How, I have no idea but it basically keeps the population where it was before Brunswick was rightly returned to ILM.

Also interesting is how the Census Bureau in Table 8 uses the CSA population first DFW, HOU, ATL, TPA, etc. use the CSA populations. If they had done the same for CLT, MCO, and RDU for example, that Table would be very different.

Table 8 is metro area populations only. Atlanta has a MSA population of 6.3 million (reflected in Table 8), but a CSA population of 7.2 million in 2023 for example.

The largest numerical growth for CSAs were:
DFW: +163,266
Houston: +142,254
Orlando: +107,035
Atlanta: +83,570
Miami: +61,993
Charlotte: +55,017
Phoenix: +49,321
San Antonio: +48,434
Washington-Baltimore: +45,946
Raleigh-Durham: +39,865
-- Note, Tampa and Austin do not have a CSA, but their metros compared against the CSAs would have been #7 and #8

March 15

44 minutes ago, Norm2 said:

I was told by a Black and Decker employee that it's the newer building directly on Carowinds Blvd that is shutting down, not the one on the state line. Hopefully the info I was given is accurate

That's correct. The state line one is a distribution center. The one on Carowinds is a factory.

Stanley Black and Decker posted a loss in 2023, margins continue to be stressed, and the stock is down ~60% from a 2021 peak. They got a turnaround plan in place that includes closing facilities and consolidating all across the world to improve margin.

March 15

Delete

March 15

1 hour ago, CarolinaCrown said:

I live in Plaza over by Veterans park, so I'd have to have some pit stops/checkpoints to make that work. If the gold line wasn't abysmal I could think about biking to it transferring uptown to the light rail and riding that down to Scaleybark, but typing that up sounds like it be quite the increase in travel time compared to what's normally about 15/20mins drive.
I'll put it to the test at some point here in the next few "spring months"

Makes sense. I don't blame you for driving. Our system is still too hub and spoke based through Uptown which results in public transit commutes that can be 2x driving your own car if you need to connect. While Charlotte has "bad" traffic, it still hasn't reached a critical disaster point for many commuters. Case in point being able to drive from Plaza to Scaleybark in ~20 minutes, but it would take 35 minutes via a combo of Bus 9 and the light rail.

One of the biggest areas we haven't addressed in the transit plan is the "non-Uptown" commuter. Many traffic patterns are an arch commute for example. East Charlotte -> South Park. Plaza -> South End. Steele Creek -> Ballantyne, et... These types of commutes will still need to be via car even after the transit plan (which probably won't happen in its current form anyhow).

March 14

In 2023 Census Estimates:

For the CSA, Charlotte is at 3,387,115 people and growing 1.65% at 19th largest in the country (between #18 Denver and #20 Portland). If Charlotte and Denver maintained their current growth, CLT would overtake Denver in 10 years. Cleveland is currently #17 and shrunk slightly. Denver should overtake Cleveland for #17 in 2 years and then CLT would overtake Cleveland in 6 years.

On the county front, Mecklenburg grew the fastest it has this decade year over year at 1.69% to 1,163,701 people. Interestingly, this was even a slightly higher annual growth rate than the largest county in the state, Wake, that grew 1.64% in 2023. Wake has recently been growing faster than Meck at the county level.

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