nite owℓ
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Posts posted by nite owℓ
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On 5/27/2024 at 9:04 PM, codypet said:
I'm surprised the WFH glut hasn't prompted more young people living in cheap dying steel cities in the NE where the supply is cheap.
I don't know enough about steel cities, just hypothesizing... Probably because not everyone wants to be a pioneer (with little promise of change). If city governments had plans to revitalize certain areas I'm sure that would help draw more investment. And if stable, in-demand neighborhoods already exist nearby then it makes sense for certain areas to gentrify. But who would want to invest blood, sweat and tears with no government investment/revitalization in sight?
On the flip side in Orlando, Audobon Park got a nice turnover because it's within close proximity to Winter Park ($$$$)... and then Baldwin Park came along. Win-win. I like what I'm seeing in Hourglass, but I'd consider what's happening there more similar to the Milk Disctrict. A decent turnover and a good buffer, but the high-dollar draw is not there.
On 5/31/2024 at 10:40 AM, jack said:Gut of supply only happens when you seen a stagnating population or a decrease in the population. We may not be growing as fast as we once were but we still have a growing population nation wide.
Yep, I agree. Never said I fully believed in the silver tsunami theory because people who believe in that act like future generations coming up to be fixed/static numbers. I can see stagnation happening in less desirable neighborhoods with few amenities, limited future plans in sight and no investment from gov, but that's to be expected. And since Millennials aren't fully established yet, they will be competing with Gen Z and others for housing so they're already creating demand.
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On 5/15/2024 at 9:36 AM, codypet said:
I really wonder what's gonna happen to the housing supply when the Boomer generation starts passing away enmasse. I feel like 20-30 years from now we're gonna have a glut of supply.
Time will tell. I did some reading up on the "silver tsunami" as it's called and it seems like housing supply could go either way and will not be as predictable as we might assume. https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/silver-tsunami/
If you think about it, people make it seem like the elderly will all die at once thus unlocking a bountiful supply of housing stock to choose from, but the generations following them are not set at a fixed/static number and many within the Millennial cohort are already behind on homeownership and now competing with some Gen Zers for housing.
I spent half of my childhood growing up in College Park in the 90's and many of my neighbors were elderly/empty nesters. But I don't recall seeing a glut of supply coming on the market as they passed away. Yes there was a change towards younger demographics over time, but it was more of a phased turnover. Instead, CP gentrified even further as some of the older/dated homes were demolished to build bigger. People won't line up to buy in a blighted neighborhood unless it has potential.
IMO, the monkey wrench in all of this is to be determined as more people are allowed to work from home. Lifestyle and proximity to desirable amenities like parks, entertainment, shops, grocery stores, schools, etc. should help indicate which areas/neighborhoods will succeed vs stagnate. I would hate to settle down and eventually become the lone elderly stalwart in a declining neighborhood.
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Except Elon always railed against censorship and called himself a free speech absolutist... then he started suspending twitter accounts of people who critique him.
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I just think it's interesting. Yes, the Rosalind Club is a historic building, but what makes it worth saving more than the other 2 buildings?
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8 hours ago, codypet said:
$300k was the absolute top of my budget at the time. $171/sqft. I remember talking to people at the time saying there's no way anything near $180/sqft was sustainable. My landlord at the time was trying to sell me his Colonialtown North home for $277/sqft. Realtors as recently as last month said I should have no problem selling at what comes to $390/sqft. That's insanity.
Now homeowners who bought at lower prices & better interest rates face a dilemma: should I stay or should I go? The lower purchase price and interest rate serves as a Golden Handcuffs keeping us locked in place. Even if you come out on top with a nice chunk of change after selling your home, will buying a new place make financial sense? The new mortgage interest rate will be higher, the new assessed tax rate of the new property will surely increase (homestead + portability will help offset some of that), and the unpredictability of homeowner's insurance makes some of us throw the thought of buying a new home out the window.
Some builders are able to (either temporarily or permanently) offer interest rates at 5% or lower by eating costs on the back end. Some sellers can offer assumable mortgages to the buyer (few and far between). Nothing wrong with going the FHA route either IMO... a lower down payment allows buyers to keep more cash in the bank for rainy days. Either way, I don't expect an uptick in sales among commonfolk (excluding cash investors or corporate entities) until interest rates come down again. Once they do, qualified buyers waiting on the sidelines will flood the market again due to FOMO, strategically playing musical chairs or tired of delaying plans. I also predicted this during Covid when people wondered if we would head into a recession -- there was nothing fundamentally wrong with the market except that people were either dying or literally prevented from working. Nowadays, young people are working part-time/full-time jobs WITH a side hustle and if buyers come from a dual income household then that will make them even stronger contenders.
I would love a magical reset in home prices, but I just don't see it happening and it makes me worry for the future (especially for young people coming up). Homeowners might knock $$$ off the price to sell, but they have too much skin in the game by paying 20% down or all cash for homes at these inflated prices to just walk away. I think condos/multifamily buildings with underfunded reserves and mandatory repairs will have it the hardest due to the new law (unless deadlines are revised to give buildings with no structural issues more breathing room to comply - IMO 10 years to build reserves is more reasonable).
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13 hours ago, codypet said:
My friends reaction the other day when I told her I bought my house for under $300k in 2015 was nothing short of astonished. There's a total teardown in my neighborhood going for $525k right now.
As millennials who bought early on, we made the final cutoff before homes became unaffordable. I'm sure even when you bought your home, 300k was beginning to push the limit again.
I bought my first property after the Recession in 2010 for less than 150k... I was in my late 20's. Then I bought a small downtown condo 2 years later well under 100k. The reason I pushed myself to buy property at the time (despite my limited income) is because prices were skyrocketing before the Recession, which was only a taste of things to come. Even back then, with a glut of property on the market, it was hard to compete because investors were buying everything up with cash. I was relegated to buying the fixer-uppers.
I would not be able to afford to buy property in today's market. I keep my quaint rental under market rate as a way of giving back.
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https://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/news/2024/05/10/orlando-lake-eola-rosalind-club.html
The City and the Rosalind Club want to implement a conservation easement "over and across" The Rosalind Club property (sounds like it includes air rights) to "conserve its historical and cultural value and character, conserve and protect the plant populations on the property, and prohibit certain further development activities on the property".
If approved by City Council on May 13th, "the easement would last through May 12, 2034, with the potential to extend for another 10-year term after that. If the property is ever sold or transferred, the new buyer would be subject to the easement."
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On 12/11/2023 at 7:26 AM, nite owℓ said:
Construction update photos.
I'm glad the developer was able to move forward on these despite the RE downturn. Also good to see they left a few mature street trees intact. I'm hoping this development spurs even more revitalization along Page St (similar to Grant).
Looks like there were 2 lots left for sale, both appear to be pending from what I see on the mls. Asking prices are 300k for regular rectangle lot and 329k for L shaped lot.
Photo Update:
Definitely doesn't give off million dollar vibes, but this is the world we live in. I believe all houses have sold.
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Well... as much as I detest how Trump operates, I think I'd rather experience a 2nd term under Trump than Biden, especially on the out of control spending and illegal immigration fronts. On other issues, with so many vacant positions, scandals and whatnot, I think it handicapped Trump from implementing lasting damage (minus SCOUTUS and insurrection). I think a lot of this political turmoil could have been avoided had the country chosen to elect Hillary. Say what you want about her, but at least she was pragmatic, practical and somewhat of a centrist. By rejecting Hillary, the country was left with extreme polar opposites which led to where we are now. Just my 2 cents... subject to change, but probably not lol.
On 5/6/2024 at 2:32 PM, JFW657 said:What altered DNA?
Well, they've been altering the rest of our food crops (and fighting hard to avoid disclosing which products contain GMO ingredients)... meat is the last frontier. I feel like we've gone past the point of no return with the contamination of pesticides, GMO, microplastics etc.
Sometimes I really wish I were a Boomer. Y'all got in at the right time and checked out of the rat race at the right time. If there were a sci-fi way for me to sell 20 years of my prime for a couple mil in exchange to be in my 60s living the retired life, I would surely do it!
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On 2/21/2024 at 1:26 PM, jrs2 said:
whatever the violence might be here...do they have that kind of violence on Bourbon Street or Broadway (Nashville)? Placing moratoriums on new bars clubs also places moratoriums on new upscale bars and clubs. They won't get what they think they can get because alcohol sales drives most all establishments; alcohol and beverage sales.
That's true, but the reality is the potential for new upscale bars/clubs opening in Downtown Orlando seems unlikely. I would love for downtown to have more upscale venues, but what person in their right mind would want to come downtown to go to a fancy bar if the element of crime has not been addressed? Hmm, go downtown and potentially get robbed or shot or just go to Winter Park/Dr. Phillips and skip the unnecessary excitement. Tough choice.
My perspective is this... Most urban cities tend to sit on their hands and tolerate/condone/enable/look the other way with crime and criminals wreaking havoc and destroying the quality of life for residents and homeowners. While not perfect, I'm very appreciative of the unconventional steps taken by the City to secure entry points, limit new bars and cut down on the party atmosphere on the street with groups of sketchy people loitering around and tailgating on private lots. Nothing is stopping any existing establishments from becoming more upscale. I believe there was 1 shooting that occurred outside of the perimeter of the secured area and TBH I haven't heard of anything else since they started cracking down. Desperate times calls for desperate measures.
It's one thing when you work downtown, slip into your car and split before the riff raff start coming out of the woodwork. But it's a completely different experience when you're downtown full time and bunch of lowlifes from out of the area turn your neighborhood upside down with no repercussions. Highly doubt you would tolerate criminal mischief, monthly shootings, etc. in your neighborhood and I'm pretty sure you would want drastic changes to keep crime in check. I'm definitely not one of those defund the police types.
For some reason, people think downtown urban areas should be ornamented with homeless people on every corner and believe crime just goes with the territory, meanwhile they would never tolerate the same element in their suburban neighborhoods. I believe urban areas should be just as safe as the suburbs and it's about time cities start implementing outside of the box measures to avoid repeating the failed policies of Seattle, LA, NYC, etc.
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2 hours ago, jrs2 said:
look at second article about moratorium on new clubs/bars downtown. and people on these boards are trying to figure out why no big money people want to invest downtown.
Well, there was a shooting every 1-2 months before they started cracking down so I'm glad they want to further diversify businesses opening up downtown (which is very bar heavy). Damned if they do, damned if they don't. It's just another extension, not permanent. Some bars created an unsafe environment downtown and took zero responsibility for the aftermath.
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Repost. Uploaded a higher resolution rendering.
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11 hours ago, FLClarkKent said:
Did these “art pieces” replace the benches on that corner?
It appears so. The benches are gone... I'm kind of ok with that, if it discourages homeless people from camping out (along with said "bell music").
Also, peep the conduit on the ground that runs between each prism. Should be fun cutting through that corner while on a bike, a wheelchair or people with mobility issues.
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On 1/10/2024 at 2:21 PM, bqknight said:
These things are near Lake Lucerne as well as you're headed into Downtown. They aren't very impressive, and IMO, looks pretty cheap.
Agreed, DTO has some bad public art. They replaced some of the trees a few weeks ago, then along came the amateurish looking art.
Looks like it might be permanent, unfortunately.Not permanent, probably a traveling exhibit.Edit: added night photos and picture of the plaque explaining the art.
Currently the prisms do not light up at night. The night photos are misleading, currently very dark and the dichroic prisms must be reflecting light captured via the camera. The city has been working on this corner for a few weeks now and will probably install wiring soon? If I understand the plaque correctly, they will eventually light up at night, spin and play bell music.
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Received notice of upcoming street closures for mural paintings at the following intersections.
Not much is known of the specific designs of these, but a few years ago I advocated to the city for murals at certain intersections to further reinforce pedestrian right-of-way (since some vehicles tend to encroach into crosswalks). I think this is a good thing.
Also, upcoming road work (resurfacing and traffic calming improvements) on Rosalind will remove the BLM logo. The city is working with the artist that painted the pocket park mural next to the Rosalind Club to come up with a new design that will be reflective of Orlando's diversity.
https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2024/01/04/orlandos-black-lives-matter-mural-to-be-removed/
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4 hours ago, codypet said:
They are getting skewered on the internet for the co-living concept coupled with $1400+/month rates.
Link? I like to see people's feedback.
The co-living units are pretty much fully furnished apartments, minus personal toiletries, so that may account for the higher rates (along with building amenities, daily community events, fitness classes and 24/7 concierge - no direct mention of security guards though).
Plus commercial insurance premiums are also seeing significant hikes (just like auto and homeowners insurance), all of which will be passed on to the consumer.
From their brochure:
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23 hours ago, jrs2 said:
Well... it's better than the grassy nook they originally planned. They probably realized it would become a doggy "potty park" more than a pocket park. Maybe this will become a selfie park where visitors take pictures instead.
If anything, they should erect seasonal silhouette stations along the Rosalind Club gate where people can stand in front of them and take pictures (e.g. like the obligatory angel wings and other Orlando-inspired gimmicks). The good kind of pedestrian traffic would discourage riff raff from hanging around or transients trying to camp out next to the building... especially if stragglers get in the way of their precious selfie stations.
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I see it a bit differently... I don't see the problem. If the house were located on the interior of the neighborhood (rather than on the perimeter facing a busy thoroughfare) then I could see the point of wanting to renovate and save the character of the neighborhood. But it's basically a shack facing Orange Ave and deserves to be replaced with a commercial building, further establishing the streetwall.
Also, the medspa further diversifies neighborhood amenities in the area vs yet another medical/office building going up.
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21 hours ago, jgardnerucf said:
Are you going to be a fan of a giant moldy white roof as the centerpiece out of every window? Eyesore.
Going green... in more ways than one.
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On 12/20/2023 at 2:24 PM, shardoon said:
I like it. I was really worried about an Orlando Health Arena or Advent Health Arena.
They always find a way to plaster their name on something one way or another
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On 12/5/2023 at 1:37 PM, Ivanhoe said:
Copper that ages to a green patina would have looked better or even glass paneling that illuminates from underneath.
CSP is also very gimmicky with its hodgepodge of patterns. It really ruined any perspective of height the Suntrust tower once had.
Do you think CSP can be salvaged if the columns and garage are painted dark gray (or a different color) other than white?
I also think the idea of the garage screening on paper was nice, but the follow through IRL was a bit half azzed. Too bad an architect from Miami wasn't involved with the design, because the screened garages down there are pretty nice IMO.
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On 9/30/2023 at 11:42 AM, nite owℓ said:
I'm only posting this since there's not a whole lot of development going on (I imagine we'll be in another development slump for a long time, but I digress).
New homes on the way in Sodo/Wadeview Park on Page St (near TD Bank). Old homes razed and lots have been cleared for a while with no activity, so I thought construction would get put on hold during the housing slowdown... But it looks like they are going ahead as planned.
Builder is David Weekly and per the booklet on page 11, six homes are planned for the area. Not sure if they are building homes one by one or as they sell. Asking price ~ $1M, so get your checkbooks ready!
https://simplebooklet.com/orlandocentralliving#page=11
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/201-Page-St-Orlando-FL-32806/46034661_zpid/
Construction update photos.
I'm glad the developer was able to move forward on these despite the RE downturn. Also good to see they left a few mature street trees intact. I'm hoping this development spurs even more revitalization along Page St (similar to Grant).
Looks like there were 2 lots left for sale, both appear to be pending from what I see on the mls. Asking prices are 300k for regular rectangle lot and 329k for L shaped lot.
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On 12/2/2023 at 7:02 PM, orlandouprise said:
teal? is it 1988 again?
I guess what's old is new again if you wait long enough
Curious what you think of the Waverly's color palette? IMO the old art deco pastels adds a bit of uniqueness to an otherwise uniform/corporate landscape. I can stomach it if tastefully done right. The rendering could use a little reworking.
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On 12/2/2023 at 1:05 PM, Gtothree2748 said:
Evening stroll under the star last Thursday
I still miss the retro lights that outlined the star... and the string lights it used to hang from. They could've accomplished the retro look with LEDs while preserving the vintage charm.
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Downtown South (Sunrail/Amtrak, SODO, Orlando Health, Lymmo, Orange/Michigan Avenues)
in Orlando
Posted
Better than a Dollar Tree, but less exciting than a Trader Joe's (one can dream). I think Planet Fitness will serve downtown and Sodo areas nicely and give the area more of a big city feel since they are typically open late/24 hours. But isn't there already another gym in that complex called Eat the Frog?